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Thread: The used car market in the short term

  1. #1

    The used car market in the short term

    I can't help but wonder what's going to happen to the car market over the next while, and when I say car market - I mean for me!

    So, my standard Donedeal search is Irish reg, 2008 on, less than 10 grand, 2 litre +, petrol.

    The results lead you to the most stagnant and depressing repository of cars for sale that you will ever see .

    But with these new diesel nox rules, I presume no one's going to pay the 4 grand penalties, so the garages will no longer be importing them. Over the next while I imagine they will gradually sell off their existing stock of already registered previous generation dirty diesels and this might even lead to a bump in their value because they can no longer be imported. But eventually they will all be gone and then there will be a gap in the market. They will continue of course to import the new "clean" (but in reality as dirty as ever) diesels at the top of the market, but not everyone can afford the nearly new stuff.

    In my wildest dreams, these importers fill their transporters with lovely turbo petrols and start selling them here. But what are the chances of that really. Will it happen at all, when might it happen, will something else happen?

    I was speaking to a skoda dealer about the dearth of petrols, and he was saying that there's a customer of his buys a fully spec'd petrol turbo skoda superb off him every two years and every time he goes to trade it in they advertise it as "coming soon" about a month in advance and it's always gone in no time. Snapped up. - So there's clearly a hunger for such cars, and a market for such cars. So why the dysfunction? Why is the market not trying at all to cater for a market that does actually exist?

  2. #2
    Senior Member Marlow's Avatar
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    I spoke to Revenue. And it is literally only cars affected.

    So commercials, campervans, vintage cars, busses and trucks are not covered by the NOx levy.

    We may see another influx of crew cabs

    /M

    On a trail somewhere .... not far from being stuck.

  3. #3
    Quote Originally Posted by bloke View Post
    I was speaking to a skoda dealer about the dearth of petrols, and he was saying that there's a customer of his buys a fully spec'd petrol turbo skoda superb off him every two years and every time he goes to trade it in they advertise it as "coming soon" about a month in advance and it's always gone in no time. Snapped up. - So there's clearly a hunger for such cars, and a market for such cars. So why the dysfunction? Why is the market not trying at all to cater for a market that does actually exist?
    ..because people who buy used cars don't by new ones.

    If I'd a penny for every enthusiast that said "x car is awesome, but I'm going to wait til they depreciate", well I'd probably have a new car.

    The people buying new cars or at least PCPing them, have mostly been buying diesels.

    Part of the problem of course is us enthusiasts not putting our money where our mouth is globally (not just Ireland), but the other half the problem is the Irish new car market. Cars are far too expensive to actually sustain the market independently of used imports, which is a source that is getting harder to exploit, it's going to get worse as they push EVs and the entry price of those is even higher. We really seem to do things against our own actual interests for no real good reason other than some pious sense that such things are decadent luxuries and vague notions about saving the planet. It's kinda mad, we treat 10 year old cars as toxic waste, but buying a new car is prohibitively expensive for most car buyers.

  4. #4
    For "me"/"you", can we not just fill our own transporter with whatever we want? I don't know how the Irish car market really works but I've always assumed that a lot of volume comes from the UK so it's nearly more about the UK market than the Irish market. So if you want a tax friendly petrol car, there's your solution. Of course... the UK is also mostly full of diesel just like here but there are more petrol cars in absolute terms and also more cars where the VRT would have been quite high here back when they were new. Plus of course the discounts in the UK are quite high on fleet grade stuff like BMWs and Audis which is why they're everywhere now.

    I'm more looking at it from an angle of cars getting worse and less exciting. There are very few cars that interest me now. And I'm not that keen to spend stupid amounts of money on VRT so looking at ways around that.
    I'm with the resistance

  5. #5
    You're right to a point, and yeah, a lot of new stuff doesn't fill me with lust as enthusiast stuff, but arguably, the sort of daily driver stuff has never been better, it's just that you're looking at kinda nutso money to get above even entry level vehicles and I don't think we should be dependent on another market for used vehicles. It's hassle and there's a lot of scope for buying a dog with no comeback, plus a lack of predictability in the VRT lottery.

    Really, we either need to make new cars cheaper or make it easier to keep stuff going longer in good nick rather than the sea of uncared for 5-8 year old stuff.

  6. #6
    A funny thing, and perhaps related, is that no-one that I personally know in the trade imports cars from the UK. They just don't have to or it's too much hassle or I don't know but it doesn't seem to be a common way to do business. I guess some specialise in it and take the pain involved in doing it but most are happy to shift whatever the Irish market has to offer. And these guys are anything from six figure cars down to a few grand.
    I'm with the resistance

  7. #7
    Quote Originally Posted by DMZ View Post
    For "me"/"you", can we not just fill our own transporter with whatever we want?.
    Yeah....

    I know. I have some sort of a mental block against going to the UK for a car. I've done it for motorbikes, bicycles, all sorts of stuff. I hate the fact that import fees are a financial uncertainty for one thing, and also I've always had to sell a car to buy a car and it's hard enough to get around Dublin to garages car-less, let alone get to some garage in the Shires.

  8. #8
    Senior Member hooch's Avatar
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    Go to an importer and get them to do the leg work for you? They will also be able to provide a warranty to reduce risk.

  9. #9
    even model by model it'll be interesting to see what happens.

    Example: Porsche announces the death of the turbo 4 pot in Boxsters and Caymans, but the replacement 4.0 is going to be more than 2k to tax here. Nobody will want the old cars in the UK, but
    there'll be a huge market for them here.

  10. #10
    Funny, I was looking at me wife’s Volvo V40 this evening with the nOx charged in mind thinking ‘are you now worth more, or less?’
    2003 BMW 325i Sport Touring (E46)
    1998 Porsche 911 3.4 Carrera 2 (996)
    2018 Volvo V40 D2 R-Design
    2005 Adria Coral 630DH


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