The Housing shortage saga - the root cause(s) ?

[shaggy]

Shaggy - is this a variation on housing co-ops? because that's a great idea and something not explored enough here.

It's a housing co-op in that a company is formed to develop the housing run by the members/future residents.

Note - company law around industrial and provident societies is being reviewed by the state agencies at the moment and hopefully new fit for purpose company forms will result from this.

The company owns all the assets and all the debts lie with it, which are repaid by the residents via monthly payments. In return they earn share equity in the company. This system allows control over the design of the housing by the residents, more control over the costs of the build and in the long term control over house prices as the share equity can be index linked to national wage rate increases rather than market housing values.
Further savings are made by maximising shared facilities into the build, not having 50 washing machines and 50 lawnmowers for instance but a shared central laundry and shared tool shed.
I've greatly simplified it above BUT if you want an in-depth look at the project PM me and I can send you on our 90 page prospectus which explains all the details.

For those who might think this is all pie-in-the-sky stuff...

We are based on the Lilac Leeds project which celebrated their 10th Birthday this year.
This type of housing provision (Community-Led Housing) makes up 10% of the housing in Denmark, and is a popular option all across Europe. I don't know of any other country in Europe that doesn't have CLH.

There was a very detailed Government commissioned report on CLH done by SOA

" ROADMAPPING A VIABLE COMMUNITY-LED HOUSING SECTOR FOR IRELAND"

which is available here.... https://soa.ie/

[blascae111]

Main problems causing the housing shortage are. (In County Clare but more than likely country wide aswell)

1. Irish Water Infrastructure - Towns and villages with land available for construction but no capacity for additional houses in the water treatment plants.
2. Lack of Zoned land - There is not a whole pile of it left. And going to be land dezoned as a result of the Irish Water Issues. Any plots left are either commanding extremely high prices or
are difficult to develop which push up prices for developers.
3. The quick flip option - Private planning applications being flipped to Councils or AHBs in one lot.
4. No incentive - If you built 10000 houses in the morning they would be filled by the children of people already in social housing and there would be another 10000 on the list the day after.

Its an impossible task to house everyone, private and social when demand is so high

[shaggy]

Main problems causing the housing shortage are. (In County Clare but more than likely country wide as well)

1. Irish Water Infrastructure - Towns and villages with land available for construction but no capacity for additional houses in the water treatment plants.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0kL4PE2SxMg

https://www.ecovillagefindhorn.com/index.php/water

Lot's of solutions out there the problem is getting approval to use them.


2. Lack of Zoned land - There is not a whole pile of it left. And going to be land de-zoned as a result of the Irish Water Issues. Any plots left are either commanding extremely high prices or
are difficult to develop which push up prices for developers.

Re-zone agricultural land as only for use as social/affordable housing. Fairly common elsewhere in Europe under CLT creation (community land trust).

3. The quick flip option - Private planning applications being flipped to Councils or AHBs in one lot.

Don't get this point TBH. Can you elaborate.

4. No incentive - If you built 10000 houses in the morning they would be filled by the children of people already in social housing and there would be another 10000 on the list the day after.
The fact that the demand is greater than the current capacity to provide is reason to increase capacity surely not give up and say it can never be done.

Its an impossible task to house everyone, private and social when demand is so high.

I'd say it's not an impossible task at all but that it may well be in the current system. The current system is built around profit creation housing people seems to me to be a secondary consideration. We are all trying to work within the constraints of a broken system and spend way too much time blaming different parts of the system and scapegoating different aspects of a system that was doomed to failure from the start. Much better to broaden our horizons and look to what solutions are out there and start building alternatives and options.

[TuneR]

Another point that i don't think has been mentioned before is population growth, perhaps it has risen far faster than people believed or planned for. Recession, C19, etc. all led to booms. A quick look at the stats say that the population has risen by 43% since 1991 and housing stock has increased 83% in that same period. 1991 had 3 people per house and 2022 has 2.4 so 1991 was worse off just looking at the stats. I was a child in 1991 so don't remember if there were housing issues back then but it today's issues are from multiple issues; vacant housing, an ageing population, land development/planning issues, mortgage requirements, etc. Seems to be a complex situation.

[blascae111]

1. Irish Water Infrastructure - Towns and villages with land available for construction but no capacity for additional houses in the water treatment plants.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0kL4PE2SxMg

https://www.ecovillagefindhorn.com/index.php/water

Lot's of solutions out there the problem is getting approval to use them.


2. Lack of Zoned land - There is not a whole pile of it left. And going to be land de-zoned as a result of the Irish Water Issues. Any plots left are either commanding extremely high prices or
are difficult to develop which push up prices for developers.

Re-zone agricultural land as only for use as social/affordable housing. Fairly common elsewhere in Europe under CLT creation (community land trust).

3. The quick flip option - Private planning applications being flipped to Councils or AHBs in one lot.

Don't get this point TBH. Can you elaborate.

4. No incentive - If you built 10000 houses in the morning they would be filled by the children of people already in social housing and there would be another 10000 on the list the day after.
The fact that the demand is greater than the current capacity to provide is reason to increase capacity surely not give up and say it can never be done.

Its an impossible task to house everyone, private and social when demand is so high.

I'd say it's not an impossible task at all but that it may well be in the current system. The current system is built around profit creation housing people seems to me to be a secondary consideration. We are all trying to work within the constraints of a broken system and spend way too much time blaming different parts of the system and scapegoating different aspects of a system that was doomed to failure from the start. Much better to broaden our horizons and look to what solutions are out there and start building alternatives and options.

The big housing shortage isn't only for social welfare recipients. I am looking at the private buyer as well. The model is broken when every development being built is solely for social housing. The unfortunate truth is that in 10 years time every bit of land within walking distance of a town or village will be a council estate. Every apartment within these towns will be homeless shelters. Wineos and druggies are not good for local business.

[Cold]

Another point that i don't think has been mentioned before is population growth, perhaps it has risen far faster than people believed or planned for. Recession, C19, etc. all led to booms. A quick look at the stats say that the population has risen by 43% since 1991 and housing stock has increased 83% in that same period. 1991 had 3 people per house and 2022 has 2.4 so 1991 was worse off just looking at the stats. I was a child in 1991 so don't remember if there were housing issues back then but it today's issues are from multiple issues; vacant housing, an ageing population, land development/planning issues, mortgage requirements, etc. Seems to be a complex situation.

I arrived in 1991. There was no housing issue that I was aware of at least. It was expensive to rent in comparison to what I was used to (which was large scale apartment complexes owned and run by property companies where everyone was renting instead of dealing with individual landlords like here) and transport was really bad so you had to live close to anything you wanted to ever get to so you would realistically be quite limited in terms of options. I suspect it's not a whole lot different now. The main difference now is that there are motorways but within the M50 it's practically identical to the way it was then. But unemployment was also something like 17% which I'm sure solved the demand issues. Interest rates were quite high also seeing as it was "punt" back then so we didn't get very low German interest rates like now.

[shaggy]

The big housing shortage isn't only for social welfare recipients. I am looking at the private buyer as well. The model is broken when every development being built is solely for social housing. The unfortunate truth is that in 10 years time every bit of land within walking distance of a town or village will be a council estate. Every apartment within these towns will be homeless shelters. Wineos and druggies are not good for local business.

The big state push isn't just for social housing but affordable housing. That's never been tackled by the state before on any sort of scale.
But letting housing built with public money return to the open market will just repeat the cycle. To change the system to one that's sustainable means taking housing out of the realm of the investment market and tying it to wages.

I didn't realise that if you get a council house you had to become a wino or a druggie. Does the same apply to affordable housing or is it just pinot grigio instead of Buckfast?
I don't really like drink or drugs much, I guess I'm screwed so.


A lot of interesting data here on the 1991 to now changes..
https://www.cso.ie/en/releasesandpub...hii/cp1hii/tr/

[Aontroim]

I arrived in 1991. There was no housing issue that I was aware of at least. It was expensive to rent in comparison to what I was used to (which was large scale apartment complexes owned and run by property companies where everyone was renting instead of dealing with individual landlords like here) and transport was really bad so you had to live close to anything you wanted to ever get to so you would realistically be quite limited in terms of options. I suspect it's not a whole lot different now. The main difference now is that there are motorways but within the M50 it's practically identical to the way it was then. But unemployment was also something like 17% which I'm sure solved the demand issues. Interest rates were quite high also seeing as it was "punt" back then so we didn't get very low German interest rates like now.

A slight tangent, but when I was complaining about renting to older family members, they often tried to reassure me/talk me down with 'not everywhere is obsessed with buying, they all rent in Germany'.

Now, there was some logic in their argument (although they all owned houses and/or were landlords so undermined their advice somewhat) but I must admit, it didn't reassure me at all.

I like to be open-minded and I'm friendly with a couple of German people at work so I thought I'd ask them if the picture was as rosy as it seemed.

There were two things that they pointed out as being different between the Irish/German markets:

1. Renters have far more rights/protections in Germany.

2. Renting was significantly cheaper than buying (whereas in Ireland, there's often little difference).

I didn't realise you were from Germany originally Cold (or I'm presuming you are?). What would your take on this be? I should point out that, like yourself, my German friends have been in Ireland for over 20 years so not sure what the current situation is with housing over there.

[mikerd4]

Ive worked with a few Germans, renting in the bigger cities especially Berlin can be damn expensive, rent controls or not.

The right to buy model in the UK seems to have crossed over to here from the UK, with tennants able to buy their council houses. My nan did it 25 years ago with help from my mum. The problems that are here arent unique, the UK has similar issues. Although the UK is a bigger place so not as compressed as here. The Irish obsession with owning property doesnt help things, I know loads of people here who are landlords with multiple houses and they arent "rich" people or accidental landlords. Whereas back in the UK I only knew a handful of people with more than one house and most of them inherited them.
The whole issue is very grey and there are lots of factors adding to it. For example my wife works in disadvantaged area and deals with homelessness every day, they have people routinely rejecting social housing as its not near their mams flat for example or is outside the M50 and not inner city.

[Aontroim]

For example my wife works in disadvantaged area and deals with homelessness every day, they have people routinely rejecting social housing as its not near their mams flat for example or is outside the M50 and not inner city.

Would this be a reflection of entitlement or is it that people are concerned about transport into the city? As in, they work in the city, possibly have no access to a car and are being asked to move to a logistically complicated/expensive area? Maybe it depends does it?

[mikerd4]

Like I have said its a very grey area. We are talking about people who inner city born and bred. I doubt they are car owners.

[Flet]

@aointrim Germany isn’t all sunshine and roses either anymore. Rents are well up in the past 10 years, as are house prices. Avg spend from post tax income on rent is 30% nationwide. Yes, there’s more rights and rules etc. but there’s a housing shortage too or there will be one, there’s REITS equivalents in the market, social housing is in short supply too. Whatever about the cities, in the small towns most people I know aim to build their own house or ultimately buy. In the big cities, those I know in Berlin say the market is lawless but so are most things in that town I guess, hardly surprising

I think a lot of people’s thoughts on German rents is the way Americans think of lil ole Ireland. Yes, a flat in Kreuzberg was 300 DM a month in 1995 when you could get zas voll Dole for two years after leaving a job and basically be demented all day but zis ship hät sailed, sadly.

I mean in a place you’d actually want to live - like Munich - a half decent 2-bed apartment will still cost you €2,500pm. Without furniture.

[kdevitt]

Like I have said its a very grey area. We are talking about people who inner city born and bred. I doubt they are car owners.

Some of my best friends are very inner city - all from around the Liberties. There is a definite sense of entitlement that a social house in that area is provided to them - for most of them, they went on a housing list as soon as it was possible. One of the lads had a flat in Vicar St from the age of 20, moved in with his partner and then just rented out his council supplied house for cash in hand. He works for the revenue commissioners. They all have cars by the way.

My other mate is an estate manager for a social housing scheme - he's from the same area as the lads above - according to him there are 63 separate social housing groups in the country, including councils. None of them communicate with each other or share any info. So he has had long term tenants disappear from a house because they've also been down as homeless on the council housing list, and a house in an area they prefer has been offered to them. He constantly has stories which drive you nuts in relation to the whole situation, he's one of the first to give out about people riding the system, yet, he's putting his 22 year old down on the list for a council house because she drives him nuts.

My wife now has people rocking up on a weekly basis to get affidavits signed so as to go on a housing list - it is policy in Fingal that if you have any time with a minor after a separation that you can jump the queue. This has become common knowledge - shes even had grandfathers rocking up saying they had a kid one weekend a month and now need a full house. A twist on this is a couple who aren't separated at all claiming they are, and aiming to get two houses - one to live in and one to rent out. Would have thought that was pretty far fetched - but she mentioned that to the friend above and he confirmed it happens in his estates - except in his case they can act on it.

None of which is to say thats the root cause of any of the problems here - but it definitely contributes.

[Cold]

I didn't realise you were from Germany originally Cold (or I'm presuming you are?). What would your take on this be? I should point out that, like yourself, my German friends have been in Ireland for over 20 years so not sure what the current situation is with housing over there.

Germany, that’s nearly an insult, lol. I do actually have a sense of humour. I’m Swedish. I think most continental or Scandinavian countries work the same more or less, though. At least in Northern Europe. Places like Holland, Germany, Denmark, Sweden, and Norway all have very similar housing and planning and public transport. As in somebody has sat down and thought about it.

I couldn’t tell you what housing is like in terms of availability. Nobody talks about it. Not people, not media, and not politicians. I’m guessing it’s not a problem. The only thing making headlines now are falling prices.

[foyler]

Yeah he can come across as a bit authoritarian & Germanic online aontroim, but happy to confirm he’s better company offline.
I preferred dmz anyway, he was less cold.

Jaysus kdevitt I had a bit of a rant in another similar thread but that’s quality & all first hand somewhat unusually, mind yourself or you might be cancelled for talking too much truth!