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  • #61
    Originally posted by Eoin View Post
    We do love to talk ourselves into a recession time and time again!
    Pretty important that - the counterbalance to us talking ourselves into bubbles on a regular basis

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    • #62
      Originally posted by -alan- View Post

      Pretty important that - the counterbalance to us talking ourselves into bubbles on a regular basis
      This is the way!

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      • #63
        If you had invested in bitcoin when I first called it a scam you’d still be up like 500%... ok 400%. 300%…
        "All the finesse of a badger." (cdiv)

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        • #64
          Originally posted by SJ View Post
          If you had invested in bitcoin when I first called it a scam you’d still be up like 500%... ok 400%. 300%…
          The fact lots of people have made money from it doesn't mean it's not a scam. Or at least a completely unsustainable currency model.
          https://www.instagram.com/diecast_1_64/

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          • #65
            This thread reminded me of going for lunch on a Friday in shanahans with a broker in the depths of the last recession ; I was a fund manager at the time

            shanahans was deserted; there was only the two of us and one or maybe two other tables.( this contrasted to the boom times when the place was wedged every Friday)

            After a few glasses(bottles probably) of wine and chatting to our waiter we devised the best forward economic indicator for the Irish economy; the number of cases of Dom perignon sold per week in shanahans ; I can’t remember the exact numbers but it was something like a case every two days to a case every two or three weeks I.e from boom to bust

            sadly no one brings me to shanahans any more; anyone else here go so you can get the inside track on the Irish economy?
            Last edited by TPaul; 19-06-2022, 09:12 AM.

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            • #66
              You can observe the same in pubs: everyone (men & women) mostly drinking draught beer - poor economic outlook. Draught beer is great value and lasts longer.

              Then watch for how many people drink spirits & mixers - good economic outlook. Mixed spirits cost more and don’t last as long, a type of conspicuous consumption if you will.

              My own barometer is how many people are changing jobs. I have a decent sized network on LinkedIn & if I see a lot of job changes I reckon it’s a bull market. If few changes happen, they’re hunkered down. Bear market.

              Right now I see plenty draught beer being drank, and not a lot of job changes happening.
              1998 Porsche 911 3.4 Carrera 2 (996)
              2000 Mazda MX-5 1.8 Jasper Conran #68/400
              2003 BMW 325i E46 Sport Touring


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              • #67
                Whereas in my industry there are jobs galore and people moving left, right and centre of places paying big premiums to get people. There is silly money being offered for relatively unskilled roles.

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                • #68
                  I heard a restaurant owner on the radio during the week. Think he has a posh place in Galway saying keeping staff is crazy. Mentioned kitchen porters on €18 an hour and chefs moving, being poached etc. He used to open 7 days a week and now back to 5 as it doesn't make sense. Also said the cost of items that they would have considered incidental are now a factor in pricing. Sugar, four and he said butter was nuts and no real excuse for it as we make it in Ireland.

                  Mrs Traco has a high enough HR position and they have been struggling to keep people around Europe with people jumping for more money, ironically several have moved and are now back in contact wondering if they can come back. She keeps hearing WFH but they won't offer that. They have flexibility but will not hire anyone that expects to be 100% WFH. She has been back in the office a few days a week and the general consensus is that all the Irish team should get in at least one day a week if not more. Employer is a major US financial operation and will have no hesitation in outsourcing to eastern Europe if people prove there is no need for them to be in the office in Dublin.

                  I think there is an overall softening in US tech companies in the states on the back of the markets falling. High end US property is also stalling.

                  Personally I think it's a reality check and a return to more normal growth etc as the last 5+ years things have gotten silly with cheap credit.

                  I don't plan any change in my pension plans as it's too far away yet so will just carry on. Also trying to pay down mortgage etc and not add anymore debt. Taking a similar approach with the business, stay lean and mean, look after the team and keep things simple.
                  _________________
                  Older but no wiser.

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                  • #69
                    I was talking to someone in HR the other day (not in my own company, never really speak to HR there) and she was of the opinion that if people aren't able to perform when working from home, it's unlikely they're any more useful in the office. As in, it's a lot easier to hide your lack of productivity in an office by just participating. I incidentally noticed this when Covid struck. It left a lot of BSers naked on Zoom where content is king at the end of the day. I think the main thing with the office is that it creates a power base as you can keep decisions within the walls and easily lock out others.

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                    • #70
                      That power base is so important, it's much better to be trying to influence from inside looking out than being on the outside looking in.
                      _________________
                      Older but no wiser.

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                      • #71
                        A few of us have been commenting lately that a good indicator of how close we are to a recession is closely related to the number of helicopters at a national rally. At Fanad in Donegal yesterday there were 8 helicopters at the spot we were spectating. That’s unprecedented since Celtic tiger times and even then I don’t think I ever saw 8 choppers at once.

                        With that in mind, the prognosis is we are fu&ked.
                        Poor punctuation and spelling via iPhone keyboard & odd words here and there via autocorrect

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                        • #72
                          Originally posted by Smokey Bear View Post
                          A few of us have been commenting lately that a good indicator of how close we are to a recession is closely related to the number of helicopters at a national rally. At Fanad in Donegal yesterday there were 8 helicopters at the spot we were spectating. That’s unprecedented since Celtic tiger times and even then I don’t think I ever saw 8 choppers at once.

                          With that in mind, the prognosis is we are fu&ked.
                          Number of cranes in Dublin is another one to look at.

                          The other thing i remembered is you're are nearly always more fooked than you think you are

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                          • #73
                            The problem (if there is a problem) with these examples is we are probably looking at a sample pool of one (I.e. 2008 crash). A sample of of one is surely not a great way to predict or to forecast..
                            maybe people are also looking back to prior recessions from the '80s but really what we are saying is when the economic situation is great it's already too late.. people frivolously spending is not a good sign.
                            History teaches us the boom and bust comes about in a cyclical fashion, although not with great levels of regularity.

                            Of course some of the examples given are tongue in cheek to some extent. I think the only certainty is there will either be a softening of economic growth, a levelling off somewhat, a mild recession or a major recession. But I have no idea of which one of the above will happen. Maybe I'm being naive though!

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                            • #74
                              Don't forget 2000
                              _________________
                              Older but no wiser.

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                              • #75
                                Originally posted by Traco View Post
                                Don't forget 2000
                                I've no stats to back it up but I would have thought 2000 wasn't "much" of a recession? I would have thought, in Ireland at least, there was steady economic growth throughout the '90s from a start point of deep recession and this continued throughout the '00s to a crazy point in '07 / '08. I don't think we came from that low a point in 2000, just that things really took off after that from a steady start. Happy to be corrected of course.

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