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  • #46
    Is it time to resurrect the Octane "Bit of a Downturn" thread?

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    • #47
      Originally posted by Ming View Post
      What does David McWilliams think? If he thinks it will be a soft landing we are toast. If he thinks it will be a rock hard landing he will be right eventually. Maybe not in this generation but eventually.
      An old boss of mine loved to say that economists have predicted 13 of the last 6 recessions....
      2005 Alfa 166 2.0TS Grigio Geo - Daily Driver
      2001 Alfa 166 3.0 Proteo Rosso - The Beast - resting for now
      2000 Alfa 166 2.5 V6 Auto Verde Argo - the Baby
      1999 Alfa 166 2.5 V6 Grigio Nettuno - Track Car
      1984 Alfasud 1.5 Gold Cloverleaf Florentine Copper - the other Baby

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      • #48
        https://davidmcwilliams.ie/putinflat...42b3-266210717

        David McWilliams is saying we need not stress, that the collapse in markets is fine. Just an adjustment which is needed and the only problem is Putin.

        I think I need some kind of AI to plot economists' predictions against real world outcomes but my head hurts trying to read the conflicting information out there at the moment.
        sigpichttps://mingshitters.wordpress.com/

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        • #49
          Predictions are hard, especially about the future.

          Here's an article from January about Economists getting it wrong:
          https://www.project-syndicate.org/co...furman-2022-01


          ​​​​​​​
          "All the finesse of a badger." (cdiv)

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          • #50
            Can we not keep this in the we are doomed thread?
            Its easier to put all conflicting information in one basket. We might eventually get a script of Hamlet from that thread.
            "This is a non-contact sport but then so is ice hockey" - Roberto Giordanelli on Irish FIAT Punto racing but applies to all Irish racing..
            "Tailgaters have small dicks" - Me

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            • #51
              We do love to talk ourselves into a recession time and time again!

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              • #52
                Originally posted by Ming View Post
                https://davidmcwilliams.ie/putinflat...42b3-266210717

                David McWilliams is saying we need not stress, that the collapse in markets is fine. Just an adjustment which is needed and the only problem is Putin.

                I think I need some kind of AI to plot economists' predictions against real world outcomes but my head hurts trying to read the conflicting information out there at the moment.
                So, in other words, we are back to the chicken scenario?
                "This is a non-contact sport but then so is ice hockey" - Roberto Giordanelli on Irish FIAT Punto racing but applies to all Irish racing..
                "Tailgaters have small dicks" - Me

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                • #53
                  Who knows what will happen. Even supercar drivers on this forum, employed in finance, predicted a recession back in 2016...which never happened. Even a stopped clock is right twice a day, so will be interesting to see.

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                  • #54
                    Who knows. Maybe not relevant, and based on Viagra or whatever, but amazing:

                    https://twitter.com/danobrien20/stat...jyLK4LxbxK8qhg


                    At 11am the main quarterly indicators for the Irish economy will be released. As they have become increasingly mind-boggling, a simple comparison is useful. Ireland, a peripheral island of 5m people, earned more from exports than Italy, a G7 country of 60m.
                    sigpichttps://mingshitters.wordpress.com/

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                    • #55
                      If there is another recession, will we see the same property price crash or will they just get further out of the reach of normal folk?

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                      • #56
                        I think I would just be cautious right now with borrowing big or spending big or investing big. Financial markets and asset valuations can be very cruel when things turn the other way. We're in such a weird situation now that caution would be my approach anyhow. Unless you are day trading and uncertainty is the name of the game. Or you saw a Dogecoin tip on Reddit, they should always be followed like gospel.

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                        • #57
                          Can't go wrong being cautious about big risks at a time of war, inflation, interest rate rises, food and energy instability and the Green Party absolutely melting my fu[king head with a new bicycle lane obstacle which adds 20 minutes to every journey every time I drive somewhere I haven't been in 3 weeks.
                          sigpichttps://mingshitters.wordpress.com/

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                          • #58
                            Originally posted by fez View Post
                            If there is another recession, will we see the same property price crash or will they just get further out of the reach of normal folk?
                            IMO, Depends largely on government policy and allowing funds to purchase large proportions of housing on a stretched housing market. However, the last recession a lot of people emigrated taking pressures away from the housing market. So if that happens who knows. It depends on a lot of factors.

                            Read a very interesting article that the rent controls issued in Ireland and other EU countries are having a very negative effect on supply and inhibiting landlords entering the market. Not only in Ireland but in Germany also, where I think the Irish scheme was based on.

                            I see two cars that aren't being purchased lately and are going up for raffles and the bonus ball wins. It was the only way to sell a modified car during the recessions.

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                            • #59
                              In a recession, people lose their jobs and can't pay back old debt, and don't want or can't get new debt. Creditors will start having a reduced risk appetite and won't lend as much to people that still have jobs. People who still have jobs don't want to take on new debt, even if they can pay it, because they are nervous that they may lose their job. This can't help but depress the value of assets like houses - it doesn't matter if you want a house; you need to be able to get a mortgage to impact demand.

                              I think the probability of a large crash in house prices will depend on the level of job losses and consumer sentiment in the next recession. We don't have a credit bubble here for houses, or so we're told. However, we have other types of bubbles; things like the huge reliance on US multinationals for (high-paying) jobs, and direct and indirect tax take. If the next recession in the US is anywhere near as bad as some (most?) economists are saying it's going to be, then I don't see many scenarios where there isn't an outsize impact on us in Ireland. I think Tesla freezing hiring, wanting to drop 10% of workforce (10,000 people), and telling everyone to get back to the office, is significant. Musk is saying he can't hear the music anymore, to paraphrase Jeremy Irons' character in Margin Call.

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                              • #60
                                Don’t think house price “crash” is coming. That means we are doomed though.


                                Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
                                sigpichttps://mingshitters.wordpress.com/

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