Invasion of Ukraine by Russia and War

[Ming]

4 is 8% of their Bear fleet. And a Tu 22M is a serious loss. That one looks like they may fix it but I wouldn't want to be in it. Good.

And there is another very clear KA 52 shoot down from yesterday. Not posting because it seems very clear the pilots didn't get out.

[Cold]

Well that missile bombardment didn’t amount to much. 60 out of 70 missiles shot down or whatever it was. The improved air defences are doing their job reasonably well.

[Mike205]

More info about the drones Ukraine is using for long distance strikes. This is genius https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidax...h=14ebe21f3348

They are actually using old ex-soviet Tu-141 and apparently they've done it again as Kursk airfield is burning at the moment.

[hi-rev]

Its possible, but its wrong to say they are the same.
The TU-141 does not have any precise guidance at all, so if these were used, they were likely ripped apart leaving only the engine and fuel tank, and with completely new GPS guidance system.

Kursk airfield got hit with "something" and it is more than HIMARS range, so perhaps a TB-2 drone strike.

The balance is ever shifting.

[Cold]

Its possible, but its wrong to say they are the same.
The TU-141 does not have any precise guidance at all, so if these were used, they were likely ripped apart leaving only the engine and fuel tank, and with completely new GPS guidance system.

Kursk airfield got hit with "something" and it is more than HIMARS range, so perhaps a TB-2 drone strike.

The balance is ever shifting.

All good!

[Ming]

It still surprises me how much of the old Soviet arms infrastructure depended on Ukrainian factories and jet engines are made in Kharkiv for example. This is all v good news. For once the Russians didn't say it was a careless cigarette or whatever, they identified what it was (Soviet era recon drone) , admitted casualties, but said they shot them down but they crashed, and put up a pic of that TU22M with its tail shredded (minor damage mehole). I think this is conditioning the Russian people to the idea that actually the hohols can strike in Russia. Not so they can launch a nuclear response because there is literally no benefit to them in a tactical strike (Ukr forces too dispersed, much ground down Ru forces unable to exploit any gap) and a city strike achieves nothing but the hate of the world and maybe destruction of their armed forces/armageddon. No, this may be to ground a narrative that we had to limit our objectives.

And it does mean that they will actually have to beef up air defences around where they keep the diminishing stock of nuclear/cruise missile capable bombers which can't be replaced. They have a notional stealth bomber knock off of the B2 Spirit replacement, the PAK-DA, but that is even more vapourware than the T-14 and likely will never fly as they can't make stuff for it with washing machine chips. It was due to fly in 2024 but hey even the Americans have to delay and even cancel their big ambition programmes from time to time.

[Cold]

As you can probably imagine, it's a bit annoying for Ukrainians to be targeted with weapons that they have built

[Ming]

I don't think they have been using much Soviet era Ukrainian manufactured stuff until recently when they started using older stuff instead of the Kalibrs etc. but I'm not entirely sure about engine stocks and all that.

[Ming]

Just as an aside, there is a wonderful website called Tinywow full of amazing free tools, like photo image modifiers and pdf translaters and video file converters etc. It also has an AI paragraph generator where you give it a topic and it generates a para. I gave it PAK-DA bomber. The result:

The PAK-DA bomber is a next-generation Russian stealth aircraft in development since 2009. It is intended to serve as the backbone of Russia’s aerial bombardment capabilities and ensure that the country stays on par with its competitors in long-range personnel deployment and strategic bombing capabilities well into the future. Expected to be outfitted with both cruise missiles and advanced air-to-air weaponry, the planned bomber expects to have a range of up to 10,000 kilometers, speeds capable of reaching Mach 1.8, and a service life estimated at over 30 years or more. All of this combined will make it one of the most advanced pieces of military technology in the world when it officially enters service.

https://tinywow.com/write/paragraph-writer

[Titan]

This is its take on Putin...

Vladimir Putin, leader of Russia and self-appointed savior of the world. From his classic stone-cold expressions to his bold governing style, he's the authoritarian ruler we all love to loathe. Clearly this "Great Leader" has it all - from a never-ending quest for control to a rigid legal system with zero room for discourse or disagreement, Putin has certainly established himself as an unstoppable leader with a sizable ego and powerhouse ambitions. He may have gained some international notoriety from appearing shirtless in photographs, but if looking like Tarzan is the legacy he wants to leave behind then let that be his claim to fame. Ah yes, 'Uncle Vlad' does have it all...well everything but our admiration anyway!

[Cold]

I don't think they have been using much Soviet era Ukrainian manufactured stuff until recently when they started using older stuff instead of the Kalibrs etc. but I'm not entirely sure about engine stocks and all that.

The Ukrainians I was talking to about this referred to Kalibrs as far as I recall. But tbh I don’t really care about the origins of the bill of materials but rather remembered the sentiment as stated by them.

[Ming]

A dirty trick (but they deserve it) the modified cold war recon drone with a warhead may have been fitted with a shot down Ru plane transponder:

https://twitter.com/NLwartracker/sta...vJkfMxkSHmFDrQ

[-alan-]

Well, it was one of theirs anyway.. only right

eSJ5M7Fl.jpg

[Cold]

Russia’s air defences must be fairly woeful or they’re too relaxed. I think Ukraine should hit some power stations tbh.

[Ming]

The thing is, they are hard to destroy with small missiles. The Kalibr has a 500kg warhead and costs 5 or 6$m. And they can be fixed fairly handily. If you can get the parts. The problem Ukraine has is that a lot of their power stations use Soviet parts and they have to be replaced. But a symbolic one or two would be good. I think they hit one in Belgorod a while ago.


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