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Invasion of Ukraine by Russia and War

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  • The Russian bombers operate well outside the range of UA military assets so are relatively untouchable.

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    • Tbh I think there's more of a balance here than people think. There are various lines that Russia can't cross either. Such as sending bombers to flatten Kiev. The west is restrained in its support of Ukraine but if things go out of control then many of those restraints may be removed. And flattening Kiev will achieve absolutely nothing other than increasing western support which means Russia will lose quicker. I'm nearly certain that Russia thinks it can outlast everyone or that this is the only remaining card hence a desire to move to slow moving trench warfare. I can't see how some kind of shock and awe in terms of destroying civilians and their infrastructure fits into that. That stuff will also be forgotten about in like two weeks time so if the idea is to terrorise then it needs to be constant and random.

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      • I still think Ukraine's future depends on the collapse of the Russian economy. I recently read that school principals and heads of universities have been sent a memo from the government to advise their staff that due to current difficulties related to the special operation they should be prepared for delays in payment of their wages and basically grin and bear it for the love of mother Russia. So it seems the first cracks are starting to appear in the effect the war is having on the economy.

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        • Originally posted by Cold View Post
          Tbh I think there's more of a balance here than people think. There are various lines that Russia can't cross either. Such as sending bombers to flatten Kiev. The west is restrained in its support of Ukraine but if things go out of control then many of those restraints may be removed. And flattening Kiev will achieve absolutely nothing other than increasing western support which means Russia will lose quicker. I'm nearly certain that Russia thinks it can outlast everyone or that this is the only remaining card hence a desire to move to slow moving trench warfare. I can't see how some kind of shock and awe in terms of destroying civilians and their infrastructure fits into that. That stuff will also be forgotten about in like two weeks time so if the idea is to terrorise then it needs to be constant and random.
          You would wonder how effective trench warfare even is any more with grenade clad drones hovering above out of sight and precision dropping explosives into the trenches. id say russia would have started carpet bombing if they had air supremacy aswell. Wouldn't put anything past them at this stage.

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          • Alfaguy, I would say it's a mixture of things. Battlefield success/failure/momentum, western resolve, Russian resolve, western ability to provide/produce weapons, Russian ability to produce weapons, men available to do the fighting, men willing to do the fighting, civilians on either side willing to sustain losses and pain, etc.

            It seems Russians only care when it affects them personally but there are also the realities on the front. If you get beaten then you get beaten.

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            • Originally posted by blascae111 View Post

              You would wonder how effective trench warfare even is any more with grenade clad drones hovering above out of sight and precision dropping explosives into the trenches. id say russia would have started carpet bombing if they had air supremacy aswell. Wouldn't put anything past them at this stage.
              I had a look at a couple of YT vids yesterday (I think Ch4 for example, some brave English lady hanging out in the trenches with the Ukrainians) and it seems sustainable enough. I'm sure the mud is a big factor at present as well. Neither side seems to be particularly capable of a modern blitzkrieg equivalent so here we are. There is a lot of wear as well. Artillery pieces and tanks being used like hasn't been seen since probably WWII. The western stuff is complicated and needs to be sent to Poland to be maintained etc.

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              • On carpet bombing (meaning dropping large quantities of unguided old fashioned iron bombs over an area), that is essentially impossible. The only thing the Russians can do in bombardment terms is use stand-off missiles launched from Russian airspace or the Black Sea. Any Bear (old turboprop), Blinder (old jet) or Blackjack (very heavy load more modern and very expensive jet, they have only 20 or so) bomber , the NATO names for the main types they have, which ventured anywhere close to a Ukrainian city would be immediately shot down.

                They can't even support the front lines with fast jet ground attack planes effectively. The Blackjack would have some chance of getting in and out but their bomber fleet is designed principally to attack US carrier groups and other very high value targets with stand off missiles.

                sigpichttps://mingshitters.wordpress.com/

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                • Something is afoot. Maybe a couple of things. Good things.
                  sigpichttps://mingshitters.wordpress.com/

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                  • So, the casualty figures have been unofficially released by the Ukrainians, after some wrong figures were accidentally published by the EU a few days ago.
                    It appears that Ukraine has lost 10-13.000 soldiers.
                    The Russian army has according to UA and UK MoD lost 90.000 giving a ratio of 9:1 in the advantage to Ukraine. (9 Russians killed for each Ukrainian)
                    I do not think I have heard of any ratio in that order since Vietnam (to the benefit of USA) or WWII.
                    On the eastern front in WWII the ratio was 7:1 to the benefit of the Germans, and on the western front it was 0.7:1 to the benefit of the Germans. (Battle tested Germans against green allies)

                    This is one of the flaws of western doctrine; it assumes (assumed?) that if the casualties are high enough, the other side will retreat and abandon.
                    But if the other side does not, then the winning side begins to lose on account of prioritising fewer casualties and therefore retreating, and also running out of munitions as the armies tend to be smaller, and focus on quality rather than quantity.

                    Obviously there were many other factors, but this is one of the lessons of the Vietnam war. The US kept killing the North Vietnamese, but they kept coming.
                    The Tet offensive was an utter disaster for the NVA as all territories / towns they gained were recaptured and the casualty figures were enormous, but the American casualty figures, though much smaller, convinced the US public the war could not be won.
                    The dynamics here are completely different (it is Ukraine that is defending its land) but its a lesson worth remembering.

                    However, it appears the Russians also "forgot" (read: ignored) the counterpoint; in Vietnam, the principal engagements was a guy with a gun vs. a guy with a gun in the jungle (fighting too close for artillery and airstrikes), the Ukrainian landscape is barren steppes, which allow for long range artillery and easy air recon (drones). In other words; In Vietnam the numerical advantage could hide the quality deficiency, but in Ukraine quantity does not beat quality.
                    "This is a non-contact sport but then so is ice hockey" - Roberto Giordanelli on Irish FIAT Punto racing but applies to all Irish racing..
                    "Tailgaters have small dicks" - Me

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                    • Just two observations on that - also in WW2 the Germans were mostly defending on the Western front. And in Vietnam, the NVA and Viet Cong were a lot more motivated than the average conscripted grunt so the quality advantage may have been more about fire support and medevac than individual soldiers.

                      In the Ukraine, the quality advantage is way in favour of Ukraine now at nearly every level.
                      sigpichttps://mingshitters.wordpress.com/

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                      • Just caught the tail end of the news this evening,and Joe Biden was talking a bit about having talks with Russia.

                        Of course Russia put out some utter BS that they would only talk or whatever, on their terms.

                        I can only guess if Russia has even mentioned talks,they must have finally realised they might not have many good options left,where they dont come out of this whole mess completely humiliated,which of course to most sensible countries,they have lost that battle long ago already.

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                        • But according to a Kremlin bot on twitter, the Ukranians have lost 400k soldiers to Russias 6,000! How they think that can be even remotely believable is in itself, unbelievable.

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                          • Ukraine has confirmed 13,000 losses as mentioned above. That seems low. Unfortunately. They also confirmed 101 women soldiers killed in fighting.
                            sigpichttps://mingshitters.wordpress.com/

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                            • Going by the rumors, it appears that Ukraine has tested a new type of suicide drone with a 1000km range (You could call it a cruise missile...) and used a Russian airfield as target for this test.
                              According to the reports, it has a 75kg warhead, which is not much by any imagination (You either need to score a direct hit on an airplane, or hit an exposed fuel source to start an devastating blow) but, to use an overused word; it is still a game changer.
                              The Russians will not be able to strike without impunity.
                              The Russians usually store their airplanes "under the cloud" (in the open air) as they say, so it can be easy to target them using same-day satellite data. Munitions are is usually kept in bunkers, but fuel has to stay in storage tanks.

                              Here is to hoping.
                              "This is a non-contact sport but then so is ice hockey" - Roberto Giordanelli on Irish FIAT Punto racing but applies to all Irish racing..
                              "Tailgaters have small dicks" - Me

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                              • Originally posted by Ming View Post
                                Just two observations on that - also in WW2 the Germans were mostly defending on the Western front. And in Vietnam, the NVA and Viet Cong were a lot more motivated than the average conscripted grunt so the quality advantage may have been more about fire support and medevac than individual soldiers.

                                In the Ukraine, the quality advantage is way in favour of Ukraine now at nearly every level.
                                Yes, that is true, but the point still stands. "Western" doctrine needs to take into account the possibility that the opponent does not care about own losses.
                                Which is important for considering Taiwan's defence for instance.
                                There is not going to be any "If we just kill more of them then they of us" aspect. As said before, The Chinese army invaded Vietnam after the failed US intervention, and lost as many soldiers in three weeks as the USA did in a decade.
                                "This is a non-contact sport but then so is ice hockey" - Roberto Giordanelli on Irish FIAT Punto racing but applies to all Irish racing..
                                "Tailgaters have small dicks" - Me

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