Invasion of Ukraine by Russia and War

[Ming]

Sounds like the Russians are about to launch or have launched even the rest of their missiles. It may be merely an empty threat but pics of bombers loading up etc.

[jf_cole]

I wish this was their last foray. Use up the last of their rockets, do anything to win Bahkmut and try force a negotiation and then be left threadless.

Slava Ukraine

[markcro]

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/global-h...xual-violence/

[Ming]

Really interesting piece from General Mick Ryan on Surovkin, the Russian commander, and his options going into 2023:

https://mickryan.substack.com/p/gene...utm_medium=web

[markcro]

https://twitter.com/uarealitynow/sta...L2XW0u3IENke5w

[blascae111]

Here we go again. For the love of god they need to send Ukraine some long range stuff. They are sitting ducks for these fire and forget Russian attacks.

[Cold]

I guess this is why Patriot is high on the agenda, ideally firing into Russian airspace even if I'm assuming Ukraine will only be allowed to use it to target things within their own airspace.

Tbh I'm not sure I get a shock and awe type of thing right now but let's see.

[hi-rev]

The Patriot idea is, like the MiG-29s early in conflict, a non-flyer.
There is no way Germany would give up its most important air defense system to Ukraine (as already mentioned) and the idea of it being loaned / crewed by UA is just as silly.

The suggestion was a way for the Polish government to avoid having to take German patriots to cover the Polish sky. (The current gov. loves to pain the Germans as the "evil overlords of EU" and accepting German help would undo all their hard propaganda, and likely the election...)
A better idea would have been to accept German help and send all the S-200 and SA-6 systems to Ukraine. While both are old, the SA-6 is a short/medium system that could cover the key areas, while the S-200 with its 200km range can take down the biggest cruise missiles before they go into range of the others..
But alas, we have to deal with moronic politicians who are more concerned with holding their stools lest they be replaced with a prison bench.

However, a group of countries has agreed to start production of new ammunition and systems for Ukraine. IIRC the countries are Denmark, Sweden, Netherlands and Poland, Czechia. The NWE countries are not known for major productions, but they have a high end engineering knowledge, while the east still has a high capacity for production, its possible there will be a plan to engineer the solutions in the west, and product in the East. One can only hope it comes ASAP.

[-alan-]

Re the aircraft buildup..it's possibly more of a psychological thing - target more Ukrainian infrastructure power/fuel supplies in the run into the Christmas period ?

[Rochey]

No doubt those "Bears" and "Blackjacks" will be targeting every power station in Ukraine from a long way up.
I hope there are some nice air defence munitions capable of bringing them back to down to earth.

[markcro]

Re the aircraft buildup..it's possibly more of a psychological thing - target more Ukrainian infrastructure power/fuel supplies in the run into the Christmas period ?

Yeah I think that they have already said that this is to target power and infrastructure..... cities. Time will tell.

[blascae111]

Was reading something earlier saying that they were firing a few waves of old missiles with no warheads just to try deplete Ukraine's reserve of air defenses.

[hi-rev]

Yeah, that is a bit of a nonsense, really.
war heads are a fraction of the cost of a cruise missile, so its just that the systematic rot of the Russian army that appeared where someone was told to go launch a missile, but did not check whether a war head was installed.
Its different in nuclear missiles of course, where indeed you have dummy MIRVs etc. but not in conventional missiles.

As for the bombers, its not the altitude that is the problem; its the distance. They can fire from several hundred kilometers inside Russia where no UAF missile can reach.

However, if the UAF can shoot down all the Russian cruise missiles using just old equipment like SA-6s and others then the cost benefit ratio for the Russians will quickly go into the negative. (though they never did care about that and will keep shooting till they have nothing left...)

[Notch000]

I've nothing to add but great work on this thread by all contributors !!!

[Mike205]

So I'm reading about Russia preparing for "massive" airstrikes, gathering some bombers far away from the reach of Ukraine. Just wondering is there a way for Ukrainian army to shoot down TU-95, TU-160 bombers once they in the air? I don't know much about these but I imagine they are high altitude, slow flying bombers I wonder does Ukraine has fighter jets or equipment capable of shooting them down.