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Invasion of Ukraine by Russia and War

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  • Artillery is hell... :-0
    We all stood around in a circle naked, thrusting our clinched fists in the air screaming "Jap Power!!"

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    • Originally posted by markcro View Post

      The eastern countries have really shown their soft western allies what balls look like. Lithuania declared Russan a rogue terroriest state last month. France "We better not embarrass...." Germany "Ve don't vant to damage vor economy. Dirtee oil is better than no oil...."

      Respect.
      Yeah exactly that,the so called smaller countries,both size and economically wise are right at the forefront while other supposed leaders are very much trailing a long way back.

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      • American Himars multiple rocket launch systems have now arrived into Ukraine.

        Ukraine's defense minister "Summer will be hot for Russian occupiers.And the last one for some of them"

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        • Id say the Russians will make a big deal of taking out any of those systems for propaganda purposes

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          • There's an ex Wagner guy in France doing the media rounds at the moment promoting his book. They get paid €4,500 a month cash when assigned to a war zone which is an insane amount of money in Russia for an average guy, like 10x average income. I guess not peanuts here either in cash but chicken feed if you're sitting on oil and gas riches. One of their tasks in Africa is incidentally to acquire energy resources so there's a certain theme to this whole thing.

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            • An old mate of mine served 2 tours in Iraq and went back as a private security contractor. He basically rode shotgun in a armoured car and was paid more in a month than he earned in a year in the army. I would have thought a mercenary would be on a lot more money than that to be honest

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              • It’s similar to what the French foreign legion pays by the way. They’re also around €4-5k a month when “in theatre”. These outfits are not recruiting in Dublin 4 exactly.

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                • Watching PrimeTime earlier on and they had a pretty good analysis of how Putin is playing the long game on this one.

                  His two main moves is to increase the cost of fuel/energy while also banking the increased price they can get for their fuel exports and then of course his willingness to use food exports (or total lack thereof) as another weapon.

                  In his head the West will come to the negotiating table when the continuing skyrocketing prices will force them to concede and start removing the sanctions.

                  At the minute it's very hard to see how anyone can stop him.

                  Oil and gas can be gotten from other sources relatively easily when compared to food production which cant be switched on and off like a switch.

                  Lack of food will only lead to unrest,migration,huge pressure on neighbouring countries and more than likely death and suffering,all because of a little deluded power hungry fu**er in Russia is on a power trip.

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                  • I’m not sure if Germany agrees with your assessment that energy can easily be sourced somewhere else

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                    • Compared to replacing Ukraine's grain exports I'd say it's a relatively much smaller problem.

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                      • Originally posted by Cold View Post
                        I’m not sure if Germany agrees with your assessment that energy can easily be sourced somewhere else
                        And also the lack of will to do so....
                        We all stood around in a circle naked, thrusting our clinched fists in the air screaming "Jap Power!!"

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                        • In the ongoing quest to try to make sense of it all - came across this article yesterday. Lays the rationale behind Putin's actions at a more strategic level than might be immediately obvious.

                          https://carnegieeurope.eu/strategiceurope/87319

                          tldr? :

                          On energy, two fundamental aspects defined the Russian outlook. One is that hydrocarbons would remain fundamental to the world’s economy and the biggest demand would emanate from Asia. Russia therefore needed to pivot efforts in the direction of new markets and partnerships. The second is that Russia understood European efforts to move toward a renewable-based energy mix that relies on critical raw materials such as rare earths. Russia is rich in many such materials. Not just that: modern day Russia aims to recover the Soviet-era industrial and export power in terms of critical materials.

                          In Putin’s mind, recovering this ability is key to ensuring that Russia is able to tilt the global balance of power in its favor, compete with China, and undermine the transatlantic relationship.

                          Where does Ukraine fit in all this?

                          With an estimated mineral wealth of over €6.7 trillion ($7 trillion), Ukraine had struck a strategic partnership on raw materials with the EU in July 2021 to develop and diversify supply chains for critical materials.

                          The only other country the EU had turned to for such a partnership is Canada. That partnership was designed to support the EU’s decarbonization and deepen ties between the EU and Ukraine. Since a number of Ukraine’s minerals are located in the eastern part of the country, which Russia now occupies, the future of the partnership is unclear.

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                          • Yep fair, I think I reached a similar conclusion towards the start of the conflict. It seems to be the favoured rationale at the moment for sure. I think another angle may well be that in resource rich countries with little or no democracy, it tends to be a thin layer of a ruling class that gets all the wealth from this and they largely don't care if the rest of the economy is doing badly so long as they can pay enough people to be loyal to them. And as we can see, keeping people poor and uninformed is very helpful when you need to hire a contract army with your energy wealth as you can hire them for cheap while you keep taking the revenue for yourself. They say Putin has an absolutely staggering net worth, like $250bn or something. It's probably also helpful to distract the locals with a war and a bit of nationalism.

                            You'd think Europe would be a bit more motivated than it seems to be to push back on the invasion of its friendly energy partner that may well become a part of the EU in the future.

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                            • Yes, that much has been clear since 2014.
                              The biggest threat to Russia is EU. And the chief contention point for the last revolution in Ukraine was Ukraine's aspiration to join EU.
                              Its not for any reason was it called "Euromaidan"
                              "This is a non-contact sport but then so is ice hockey" - Roberto Giordanelli on Irish FIAT Punto racing but applies to all Irish racing..
                              "Tailgaters have small dicks" - Me

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                              • Also, while Ukraine is going backwards on the battlefield, it does not appear to be that desperate yet.
                                The Russians are still having huge logistical problems, and their advanced weapon systems are rapidly deteriorating. (ref: UK MON)
                                Obviously, so are the Ukrainian ones, but the Ukrainian army can look forward to new deliveries.
                                It appears that the Pz2000 deliveries will happen. With more 155mm systems en route, it will makes sense to supply Ukraine with more 155mm ammo to replace the entire 122mm and 152mm systems.
                                It also appears USA will deliver a complete (low to mid altitude) SAM system, NASAMS, which is using off the shelf AMRAAM and Sidewinder missiles, so should be cheap and easy to operate.
                                "This is a non-contact sport but then so is ice hockey" - Roberto Giordanelli on Irish FIAT Punto racing but applies to all Irish racing..
                                "Tailgaters have small dicks" - Me

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