Invasion of Ukraine by Russia and War

[Alfaguy]

So what is Russia's problem exactly? Seems to me its we want to invade / annex Ukraine so rest of the world butt out and leave us do our thing that we historically like doing. Also who appointed the UK as the international mediators to sort it out - they can't even manage brexit?

[Cold]

Russia doesn’t want NATO on its borders (probably a reasonable complaint tbf) and a bit of sabre rattling works well with the domestic audience where Putin’s popularity has started to fade. Boris needs a distraction that will excite the Tory press so they stop going on about his parties and to prevent them from starting to wonder what Brexit was all about. Essentially the key to Tory thinking is to be in conflict with somebody. It doesn’t really matter if it’s the EU, Scotland, the BBC, Macron, Russia, or some random place in the Middle East.

In the meantime, nothing will actually happen. Other than maybe creating a stronger coordination and alignment within NATO, an organisation that was very much gathering dust on a shelf somewhere.

[deltona]

Cold summed it up nicely.

You'd have to write pages of stuff to cover it properly, and frankly I've no inclination to do that, so here's a few bullet points to create a sense of things.
Always remember there are more than one or two sides to everything.

• In the 90s under Yeltsin Russia was like the wild-west -- those with the largest number of heavies and the most guns effectively grabbed wealth and power/influence. This is where many of today's oligarchs and wealthy people got their start and how they built to what they have now.
• Putin came to power in the late 90s and had to integrate these pillars of wealth and influence whilst also trying to rebuild a country with a lost decade and deal with all the social problems which had festered, especially at street level.
• Shortly after coming into power Putin spoke about wanting to align with Europe socially and economically, and become a member of NATO to help Russia integrate more with European countries and rebuild itself.
• Then 9/11 happened, and subsequently (in 2002) Bush Jnr withdrew the US from an anti-ballistic-missile treaty which had been in place between Russia (& prior to that the USSR) and the USA for 3 decades.
• NATO expansion happened at a rapid pace in the next couple of years, and the treaty was gone. Russia at the time had little to defend itself with, and suddenly NATO was viewed as a US-led organisation, rather than 'European'. The USA had pulled out of the treaty and were placing missile bases within strike distance of Russia.
• Cue Russia taking a dim view of NATO -- seeing it merely as the untrustworthy USA, and embarking on 2 decades of re-arming itself and bolstering both defensive and offensive capabilities.

That's the NATO side of things in a small nutshell. There's other stuff at play too, but I've no time to mention them right now.

[hi-rev]

Ah yes, completely forgetting the Russian invasion Moldavia, then the invasion of Chechnya (twice!) the invasion of Georgia and the invasion of Ukraine.
But other than that, its spot on, sure.

Also, Russia has always had NATO on its borders. It was just called Soviet Union back then.
If a country want to say "I want to join your club" then no other country should have the right to oppose that.

As for the "nothing will happen"
Well....
https://twitter.com/nickschifrin/sta...03846898176003
So there is that.

[Alfaguy]

[Cold]

No it was called the Warsaw Pact, which was dismantled and then some of those countries joined NATO.

Biden needs a bit of sabre rattling too of course hence the noises coming out of the US.

[Alfaguy]

So has Russia already set up a proxy regime in Belarus seeing that the troops poised at the Ukranian border are also on the Belarus side of Ukraine.

In the reply I had to delete I was saying that the west has been far too tolerant of Russia's bullying and election interference and nation destabilisation tactics with no retalliation other than totally ineffective sanctions. So why does anybody think more sanctions will work this time?

[Cold]

Yes they have a puppet regime in Belarus. Handy when the Belarusian border is like half an hour from Kiev.

I'd imagine that the French proposal to keep Ukraine neutral of sorts will be the upshot of all of this.

[deltona]

Ah yes, completely forgetting the Russian invasion Moldavia, then the invasion of Chechnya (twice!) the invasion of Georgia and the invasion of Ukraine.
But other than that, its spot on, sure.

Also, Russia has always had NATO on its borders. It was just called Soviet Union back then.
If a country want to say "I want to join your club" then no other country should have the right to oppose that.

As for the "nothing will happen"
Well....
https://twitter.com/nickschifrin/sta...03846898176003
So there is that.

Calm the jets. I used the term "small nutshell" re. the NATO aspect.
I also mentioned how things can be spun and viewed from multiple view points.
I also mentioned there was other stuff too, but haven't the time to write it up. But feel free if you have the time.

The USSR and subsequently Russia never had NATO on its borders. The Warsaw Pact countries did. They were viewed as the buffer at the time. But you know that.

[deltona]

So has Russia already set up a proxy regime in Belarus seeing that the troops poised at the Ukranian border are also on the Belarus side of Ukraine.

Yeah, Belarus is a puppet state. Which is how Putin would've wanted Ukraine too, but thankfully it progressed much further than Belarus.

Have a read;
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Union_State

There's a ridiculous video of Lukashenko below. If you can't laugh at it then you'll either just cry or be infuriated.
https://youtu.be/1JNtiO7nhmo

[deltona]

In the reply I had to delete I was saying that the west has been far too tolerant of Russia's bullying and election interference and nation destabilisation tactics with no retalliation other than totally ineffective sanctions. So why does anybody think more sanctions will work this time?

There's a book you need to read to get a handle on the thinking and approach of figures such as Putin and his cobol.
Start by reading the bullet points under the Content subsection below;

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Founda...ian%20military.

Then get yourself an English language version if you can. It helps with understanding the political thought processes of high-ranking Russians, and how they perceive the world.

[mikerd4]

Russia has nukes, simplae as that. Putin probably doesnt want to use them but he has the card in his back pocket. He is and always has taken the gamble that the west wont actually go to war as doing so raises the possibility of it becoming a nuclear exchange. It is why he gambled on taking Crimea knowing that he would get away with it. Throw in everything else the likes of Deltona have said about Russias view of NAto on its borders, colds view of a bit of strong man for the home audience etc and who knows where we end up. Will we actually go to WW3 for Ukraine?

Russia isnt the only one that plays these games either, North Korea does it. Having nuclear weapons means you cant be bullied by the big boys anymore

[hi-rev]

Calm the jets. I used the term "small nutshell" re. the NATO aspect.
I also mentioned how things can be spun and viewed from multiple view points.
I also mentioned there was other stuff too, but haven't the time to write it up. But feel free if you have the time.

The USSR and subsequently Russia never had NATO on its borders. The Warsaw Pact countries did. They were viewed as the buffer at the time. But you know that.

They were not buffer states, they were under the full control of USSR. With nuke carrying USSR troops in all countries

[mikerd4]

Deltona, even reading the brief wiki synopsis you can see some of it becoming reality already (UK cut off from europe aka brexit and the fact the Russians ran sophisticated cyber campaign for it to happen), what they have done in the US (again via a cyber campaign) and now Ukraine (potentially)
Russia and China are uneasy bedfellows but it suits them both to be "allies" right now.

[deltona]

Deltona, even reading the brief wiki synopsis you can see some of it becoming reality already (UK cut off from europe aka brexit and the fact the Russians ran sophisticated cyber campaign for it to happen), what they have done in the US (again via a cyber campaign) and now Ukraine (potentially)
Russia and China are uneasy bedfellows but it suits them both to be "allies" right now.

Yep. Not pleasant reading, is it? But life is a game of chess....