Covid-19 Pandemic - Alright everyone, back to The Pile

[deltona]

Fair, and reminiscent of a post I made in early 2020 about how we'd still be revisiting everything 5-10 years down the line and tweaking and adjusting data sets as understanding improved with hindsight.
But that's life as we know it I guess...

That's why I try to look at the bigger picture I guess, because the reality is that the population of Ireland and it's data could be seen as a statistical blip in the overall scheme of things.

[Rennwagen]

You can explain it to him all you want. But you can’t understand it for him.

Thanks for yet another 2 line smart remark, you're getting better at them.

I'm happy to concede that I dont fully understand "it", and surprised by the clever fellas on here that think they do.
I am happy to ask questions, to be wrong to be corrected and to learn.

Some of you seem to have a problem with me for being that way but I really dont care, and the snide remarks and insults a threats from Mods wont change a thing.


I hope you understand.


I Read this thread for re assurance more than anything else because the information over load in real world is to much at times.

[Fluoxetine]

Due to go to the uk on Monday for a funeral. Trying to get info now on these new rules just announced. Looks like I'll have to isolate and possibly miss the funeral....

“Everyone entering the UK (other than those coming from the Common Travel Area that covers the Channel Islands and Ireland) will have to take PCR test by the end of the second day after their arrival and self-isolate until they receive a negative result.”

Covid: Tighter rules to be set out after two cases of new variant found in UK https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-59445124

(halfway down the page)

I’m currently commuting twice weekly between the UK / Ireland, so also have a keen interest in what the Irish gov decide to do at their end…

[richardsheil]

You don't have to understand it.

Just follow basic public health advice.

Get vaccinated, get booster.

Contribute to others health by the above.

Ignore conspiracy theories.

You are a builder for feck's sake.

Surely you know life is about cock-up theory not conspiracy theory.

[Bunk]

Fair, and reminiscent of a post I made in early 2020 about how we'd still be revisiting everything 5-10 years down the line and tweaking and adjusting data sets as understanding improved with hindsight.
But that's life as we know it I guess...

That's why I try to look at the bigger picture I guess, because the reality is that the population of Ireland and it's data could be seen as a statistical blip in the overall scheme of things.

I look at it the other way around. Ireland is actually more likely than most of the countries in your table to give an accurate picture of the true fatality rate of the disease because while not the best in the world, we are probably better than 90% of countries in terms of counting cases, track and trace (even with its limitations) combined with some decent standard of medical care. Most of the terrible countries on your list I'm sure you are aware are hardly testing at all, only testing people when they are critically ill, or in cases like Yemen, too busy trying to avoid Saudi missiles to bother with 45 cycle PCR tests. As such most of those countries have drastically understated case counts and the CFR's are meaningless. The WHO for example estimated global case counts are underestimated by a factor of sixteen. The US use a 4-5 times undetected estimate.

On the flip side as Leo Varadkar said in the Dail, Ireland is counting deaths where there is even a suspicion of Covid, he specifically also referenced Stage 4 cancer patients (as this took my Aunt last year so this stuck in my mind), etc etc

Therefore if you take Irelands current position where we have 5500 deaths and 550k cases (give or take), that puts the upper boundary of CFR at 1% or so, but in all likelihood we have had twice the number of cases at least and our deaths are probably overstated by a similar factor so its almost certainly sub 0.50%. Of course, thats dramatically skewed when you come to vulnerability factors like age and underlying conditions, and in younger people morbid obesity.

[Johnny_Limerick]

So Renn could be right after all

[mikerd4]

British embassy announced that travel within the cta doesn't require a pcr test.

[Johnny_Limerick]

For the first time ever I seem to be in agreement with Eammon Ryan

"The Minister said he feels the young people of Ireland need to be protected against the negative impacts of isolation. He believes the first priority is to keep schools and colleges open for in-person learning."

https://www.independent.ie/news/it-w...-41094834.html

Living in fear has gone on far to long. BUA or bust. I wonder could we afford an underground in Cork or Dublin with all the money spent on restrictions.

[Cold]

That has been the strategy all along, by the way. That’s why hospitality gets closed down first. Learning comes before fun.

Anyways, luckily there is a new variant about so we can do some more restrictions without having to worry about a public backlash and/or questions about a plan b.

[Rennwagen]

So Renn could be right after all

Even a stopped clock is right twice a day.....

[-alan-]

I'm happy to be corrected here lads I'm often wide of the mark, no offence meant like.
I'm just trying my best to understand this and make sense of it.

You're not on your own. AFAIUI trying to model the behaviour of the spread and containment of the virus accurately is incredibly difficult - not helped either by the fact that the nasty thing keeps mutating. Overlay that with a set of 'mixed' messaging in the mainstream media combined with some of the more outlandish stuff cropping on the web - plus a fair amount of mistrust of officialdom which has grown with people left at home looking to the internet for guidance and answers and it does get very difficult to get your head round it.

I wouldn't criticise anybody for struggling to understand what's happening.

[Johnny_Limerick]

That has been the strategy all along, by the way. That’s why hospitality gets closed down first. Learning comes before fun.

Anyways, luckily there is a new variant about so we can do some more restrictions without having to worry about a public backlash and/or questions about a plan b.

You can see from my previous posts I'm well aware of this.

This was the full quote I heard on the radio “We will heed health advice, but… particularly younger people in college, in work and in school – we will have to live with Covid in a way where they’re not isolated, where they’re not full of anxiety and cut off because of that.”

I'm not sure they will get away, with using this new variant as stick to beat the populous with. I doesn't appear to have the mega fear factor. With symptoms being unusual but mild.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/global-h...says-symptoms/

[Cold]

The reason it’s hard to predict is that it nearly entirely depends on how people behave. Which is why we get frequent lectures about it. Apart from getting vaccinated, the only other thing we can do is try to socialise in moderation and behave responsibly if not feeling well. And try to keep fit as that has a big impact on outcome as we know.

I’m not that concerned about the mutations. It happens with flu and cold too and here we are. It looks like the body is smart enough when it comes to this. I’ve long held the view that they’re just hyped up because they provide very convenient cover. They always crop up when cases are rising and some bad news is in store re restrictions. And everyone loves some drama.

[-alan-]

So...anybody care to hazard a guess what 'the new normal' is going to look like - a couple of years down the line ?

[Cold]

It will look like what it looks like right now. I think that's the steady state for the foreseeable. There might be some temporary restrictions over and above but I expect this to be it.

A lot will depend on this winter. We know what an unvaccinated winter looks like but we don't know what a vaccinated winter looks like and we don't know what a boosted winter looks like. That will tell us a lot. If we can find the magic mix to keep the winter at bay then we'll be fine.