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Covid-19 Pandemic - Alright everyone, back to The Pile

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  • I think like last year ken the peak of this is already over, we are just now catching up with the recording of what's already happened. It's complicated this year by the testing system getting maxed out. So lets say in actuality if cases were really 50k a day a week ago, but there is a soft cap on detections of 20-25k a day due to exceeding testing capacity, there will be a period where cases might be falling from lets say 50,45,40 etc but the reported numbers are not going to reflect it and are going to stay static. I also think a lot of detections were driven by people taking antigen tests in order to go to events over Xmas/New Year where now they aren't bothering.

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    • A new testing centre opened up in Kildare this week and has a lot of open spots

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      • Originally posted by Bunk View Post
        It's a pretty big comfort though SJ, isn't it? When you have something as infectious as Omicron is, (and take our own situation where we have 50%+ positivity rates) you are going to have a lot of people entering hospital for unrelated reasons that test positive. In addition, NY is also still dealing with a huge amount of delta where vaccination is important and they are sitting at something like 70% vaxxed compared to our 94-96%. I think NYC is probably not a good comparison for us.

        I think its pretty clear that the actual frontline doctors (as opposed to a Paul Reid for example) will say they aren't panicking this time round and the wave is clearly a different beast to previous waves. its a "normal January. There are lots of incidental admissions (consistent with 50% positivity rates), and those people that are admitted for covid have less severe symptoms and the average duration of stay is lower than previous waves. The ICU occupants are generally long-term and mainly delta AFAIK as well. I think health system pressure at the moment is more because of perfectly healthy staff who are isolating than because we are running out of ventilators or whatever.

        One thing that occurred to me on Saturday incidentally......I went to the local and it was rammed. Now I'm friendly with a manager there and I think the general view is that the measures are counterproductive. They reckon they are doing a normal January's business (i.e. not very much), but because it is essentially all packed into the 4.00-7.00 window that its making it appear a lot busier. Like a lot of lads that might ordinarily wander in at 10.00 or whatever are all getting out earlier when they are in the bulk of their normal food trade. I wonder is there any discussion of this by the powers that be.........like extending opening hours might actually be a good thing right now?

        Some of that is true, some of it, it's too early to say. Look at admittances in the UK if you don't like NY data -Like it or not, admissions are a massive concern. ICU a bit less this time around but again looking at NY and UK there are some reasons to worry. England has 29 patients per 100k population. We're at 20. If we got to UK levels we'd be in huge trouble,

        There are more trolleys than last year but fewer than 2019-2020 pre-Covid, so that's where we are with capacity - we've done an expanded deal with private hospitals recently.

        I have a chart here that shows the number of people invasively ventilated and while you're right there are a lot of incidental Covid cases, there are also a growing number of people on ventilators. It's pretty clearly correlated to the case numbers, but at a thankfully lower level than Jan last year.

        As for the pubs, we have pretty good mobility data and average numbers of close contacts - fewer people are going out than the baseline. Whether that's due to reduced opening hours or general prudence, I can't disaggregate right now. I presume someone else can.
        Last edited by SJ; 10-01-2022, 04:00 PM.
        "All the finesse of a badger." (cdiv)

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        • ROI/NI comparison update

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          • @ kdevitt the online system seems to have very little ryhme or rhythm about it I went on and checked and there were 5 for tullamore went on again 20 mins later and there were 428 and that was in the middle of the day. None locally I had to travel for an hour to get one but worth it to have that outta the way.

            Anyone else have it at the moment? I'm hardly sick at all with it any other time i'd be in work and going about my business.

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            • Not sure how your local is running it Bunk but my local has tables all spaced apart and table service only, he added an outdoor tented area but its still seated and spaced out He couldnt get extra people in if he wanted to given how he has laid the place out within the current guidelines. I was in on Christmas eve and felt fairly safe

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              • Originally posted by SJ View Post


                Some of that is true, some of it, it's too early to say. Look at admittances in the UK if you don't like NY data -Like it or not, admissions are a massive concern. ICU a bit less this time around but again looking at NY and UK there are some reasons to worry. England has 29 patients per 100k population. We're at 20. If we got to UK levels we'd be in huge trouble,
                The latest data from,
                https://www.england.nhs.uk/statistic...ital-activity/
                seems to say that there were 865 COVID confirmed patients occupying critical care beds in England on Jan 4th. So with a population of 55 million that gives a rate of ~16 per million which is pretty similar to our 89 ICU cases and 5 million population.
                What is looking relatively positive is that their rate has been hovering between 14-18 per million since October, so there hasn't been a tick up there even with the huge increase in cases.
                Last edited by conneem; 10-01-2022, 07:09 PM.

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                • yes ICU is doing a bit better this time thanks to vaccination.
                  "All the finesse of a badger." (cdiv)

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                  • Originally posted by fast focus View Post
                    @ kdevitt the online system seems to have very little ryhme or rhythm about it I went on and checked and there were 5 for tullamore went on again 20 mins later and there were 428 and that was in the middle of the day. None locally I had to travel for an hour to get one but worth it to have that outta the way.

                    Anyone else have it at the moment? I'm hardly sick at all with it any other time i'd be in work and going about my business.
                    Yup..

                    Had a bad cold since Thursday - antigen test gave the 2 lines.. and PCR on Saturday confirmed it..

                    10 year old confirmed today with PCR and yet wife is negative with PCR and antigen tests...

                    All 3 of us were in center parcs until the start of last week...been nowhere since...

                    Sent from my Pixel 4 using Tapatalk


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                    • Originally posted by alan996 View Post
                      Yup..

                      Had a bad cold since Thursday - antigen test gave the 2 lines.. and PCR on Saturday confirmed it..

                      10 year old confirmed today with PCR and yet wife is negative with PCR and antigen tests...

                      All 3 of us were in center parcs until the start of last week...been nowhere since...

                      Sent from my Pixel 4 using Tapatalk

                      Interesting Alan. We returned from Centre Parks very early bank holiday Monday where we were for the new year with two other families. They returned later on the Monday after enjoying the last day there. Both families have it now, but one family only has one case in a family of four. Very strange how this one works.


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                      • Any of ye very sick? or is this playing out as suggested like a bad cold? The worst thing for us is only I have it so if we get back to normality in 10 days and one of the kids get it were back to square one as regards quarantining.

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                        • No not sick.. well the first night I vomited up my dinner.. but other than that just going a bit stir crazy...

                          Hardest part was self isolating since last Thursday to protect the other 2.. and then having one of them positive anyway...

                          A few mild sniffles is all...I don't even know why I did an antigen test..

                          We left at check out time on Monday - the only place we weren't masked was in the pool (my wife only went one of the 4 days to the pool). Ate out on of the nights but we weren't very long and it was well spaced out..

                          I dunno.. think we will all get it at some stage at this rate

                          Sent from my Pixel 4 using Tapatalk

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                          • In terms of sickness, I had a very light head cold. My wife on the other hand couldn't get out of bed for 3 days, 2 of which were spent trying to get control of a 40deg temp. Which was no craic.

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                            • Originally posted by LeoD View Post

                              Interesting Alan. We returned from Centre Parks very early bank holiday Monday where we were for the new year with two other families. They returned later on the Monday after enjoying the last day there. Both families have it now, but one family only has one case in a family of four. Very strange how this one works.

                              Yeah for all the talk of contagion, my Mrs got it but didn't give it to me or the 2 girls,and she didn't isolate from us. Ditto a mate of mine. Family of 4, sick mom but no transmission.

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                              • Hmmm maybe me sitting in the box room is helping no one. I have only been here 2 days and already feel a bit like...

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