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Covid-19 Pandemic - Alright everyone, back to The Pile

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  • #46
    Originally posted by deltona View Post

    Was thinking the very same thing whilst reading Mark's posts.
    Can I ask why? I'm not trying to be defensive, and certainly not trying to criticise Mark at all, but the data is public data, mostly available here:
    https://covid19ireland-geohive.hub.arcgis.com/

    And NPHET provide very similar in their slides which are published here:
    https://www.gov.ie/en/collection/4b5...ess-briefings/

    I'm privileged as I get slides etc internally but I honestly believe that the NPHET and modelling team data is really clear. I think it's often reported badly but it's presented well by the scientists.

    I feel sorry for Ronan Glynn too - I've struggled writing some official stuff too -- I've had tortuous discussions about whether we say 'low risk' vs 'safe' vs 'as safe as possible' at various times. It's easy to twist things if that's your agenda but I've always understood what I'm being told. Like, we sincerely believe that cases in kids 5-12 would be at least as high if the schools were closed.

    It's always possible to selectively report; and for the past 18 months there's been a constant search to find the things that are being done 'wrong' versus whatever other country is 'winning' in that particular thing.
    Last edited by SJ; 25-11-2021, 12:22 PM.
    "All the finesse of a badger." (cdiv)

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    • #47
      Originally posted by SJ View Post

      Can I ask why? I'm not trying to be defensive, and certainly not trying to criticise Mark at all, but the data is public data, mostly available here:
      https://covid19ireland-geohive.hub.arcgis.com/

      And NPHET provide very similar in their slides which are published here:
      https://www.gov.ie/en/collection/4b5...ess-briefings/

      I'm privileged as I get slides etc internally but I honestly believe that the NPHET and modelling team data is really clear. I think it's often reported badly but it's presented well by the scientists.

      I feel sorry for Ronan Glynn too - I've struggled writing some official stuff too -- I've had tortuous discussions about whether we say 'low risk' vs 'safe' vs 'as safe as possible' at various times. It's easy to twist things if that's your agenda but I've always understood what I'm being told. Like, we sincerely believe that cases in kids 5-12 would be at least as high if the schools were closed.

      It's always possible to selectively report; and for the past 18 months there's been a constant search to find the things that are being done 'wrong' versus whatever other country is 'winning' in that particular thing.
      No offence taken SJ, the majority of the data i use i have setup to automatically download directly from the geohive hub database, other sources are the HPSC 14 day reports (https://www.hpsc.ie/a-z/respiratory/...iologyreports/) and HSE daily ops report (https://www.hse.ie/eng/services/news...s-updates.html)

      The delay in publishing the NPHET slides is an issue i think though SJ, while it maybe made available to journalist and folks like yourself on the day of the briefings it can take a week or more for the slides to be published on the gov.ie website at which stage they are somewhat out of date, any of the briefings I have watched live you can't see the slides clearly enough either.

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      • #48
        Ronan Glynn said, on Newstalk that the country's public health officials never claimed schools were safe. He said “We’ve never said that schools are a safe environment. We’ve said that they’re a lower risk environment." In April 2021 in a Dept of Education YouTube video he said: “What we have seen from September to date is that in general, schools have been what we would regard as a safe environment.”

        The Taoiseach, Education Minister, Tanaiste and CMO consistently made very similar statements in 2020 and 2021 using the words schools and safe in the same sentence. That's not twisting anything, those statements are there in black and white.

        Even this month, Leo Varadkar said: “The advice we're getting from Nphet and from the CMO is that schools are a safe place." In September, Norma Foley said: "it is still the view of the CMO () and our public health experts that schools remain safe environments”

        I have sympathy for the folks doing those jobs and know full well what it's like to say one thing but for the message to land differently, or for a situation to evolve but when the Deputy CMO says 'we never said that' while there is ample evidence that the powers that be did in fact say exactly that then people will feel they are being gaslit, like that or not.
        1998 Porsche 911 3.4 Carrera 2 (996)
        2000 Mazda MX-5 1.8 Jasper Conran #68/400
        2003 BMW 325i E46 Sport Touring


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        • #49
          Originally posted by SJ View Post

          Can I ask why?
          I think you answered it yourself;
          Originally posted by SJ View Post
          I think it's often reported badly...
          The media have a huge part and responsibility in it, but too many times when representatives from Health or NPHET or whatever body are interviewed it doesn't come across well for whatever reason.
          Admittedly the media should share some of the blame too, but public attention will be on the interviewee/spokesperson.
          Most people in the country aren't going to visit the relevant info published online, but instead rely on snippets from radio and TV interviews and broadcasts. That's the reality of it.

          Mark sums it up into 1 or perhaps a few sentences, with current figures and stats to back it up.
          When representatives are interviewed or featured it's too wishy-washy and always comprised to some degree of a$$-covering. I understand they have to protect themselves given their future careers and professional reputation are on the line, and none of them likely entered their chosen career expecting to be the focus of the entire country on the 6-one news every evening, so I do empathise with their situation.
          But the reality is we're about to be knocking on 2 years of this shortly, and the public messaging has been inadequate from the start, and isn't improving.

          (I'm probably the totally wrong person to ask by the way, as not being in the country I only hear the snippets on podcasts from the bigger Irish radio shows. I'm glad of that too, because I can choose where to go for info if I want it, without having people telling me what somebody said on the radio or TV and the doom and gloom and complaining and venting that goes with such conversations.)

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          • #50
            Originally posted by Flet View Post
            Ronan Glynn said, on Newstalk that the country's public health officials never claimed schools were safe. He said “We’ve never said that schools are a safe environment. We’ve said that they’re a lower risk environment." In April 2021 in a Dept of Education YouTube video he said: “What we have seen from September to date is that in general, schools have been what we would regard as a safe environment.”

            The Taoiseach, Education Minister, Tanaiste and CMO consistently made very similar statements in 2020 and 2021 using the words schools and safe in the same sentence. That's not twisting anything, those statements are there in black and white.

            Even this month, Leo Varadkar said: “The advice we're getting from Nphet and from the CMO is that schools are a safe place." In September, Norma Foley said: "it is still the view of the CMO () and our public health experts that schools remain safe environments”

            I have sympathy for the folks doing those jobs and know full well what it's like to say one thing but for the message to land differently, or for a situation to evolve but when the Deputy CMO says 'we never said that' while there is ample evidence that the powers that be did in fact say exactly that then people will feel they are being gaslit, like that or not.
            I get this. Obviously the line about "we never said" is wrong; and unfortunate; but treating it like a f*cking gotcha is bullsh1t.
            "All the finesse of a badger." (cdiv)

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            • #51
              When Mark F isn't publishing stuff, it's like fumbling around in the dark and listening to utter nonsense from NPHET and media. Literally night and day difference. I kid you not, people out there ask me how Covid-19 is going because they know that I know. And the reason that I know is because of this thread. And the reason that they don't know is that they're listening to NPHET or the government or even worse, RTE. I was literally having this conversation with someone yesterday and I was like sorry my information source hasn't been posting for a few days so I can't tell you.
              I'm with the resistance

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              • #52
                Originally posted by DMZ View Post
                When Mark F isn't publishing stuff, it's like fumbling around in the dark and listening to utter nonsense from NPHET and media. Literally night and day difference. I kid you not, people out there ask me how Covid-19 is going because they know that I know. And the reason that I know is because of this thread. And the reason that they don't know is that they're listening to NPHET or the government or even worse, RTE. I was literally having this conversation with someone yesterday and I was like sorry my information source hasn't been posting for a few days so I can't tell you.
                What I'm saying is that the data is a lot more like what NPHET actually see and publish than what's reported. I get that what Mark does is very valuable; but I guess I question what news you read/watch/listen to if you're getting so much noise.
                "All the finesse of a badger." (cdiv)

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                • #53
                  Any news is noise and commentary, and pushing people to give comments which they may then regret down the line.

                  Data is data, and we are clearly a bunch of nerds so we like data, we like poring over marks charts and tables

                  one of my personal favourites is looking at the rate of change over the last few weeks on the 7 day case rates (is that the delta?), which when looked over the last 5 tuesdays go +73,+119,+117,+28 which shows the accelleration of cases moving towards a plateau, which gives me hope of an impending reduction.

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                  • #54
                    The value is in how you present it. What Mark F is doing is aligning different KPIs in a way that you can see how they correlate and also showing specific trends within them. Data is only easy to understand because someone makes it so. It was easy to tell long before NPHET acknowledged this to be the case that hospitalisations would be a problem. It was easy to tell long before NPHET acknowledged this to be the case that primary schools were a problem.
                    I'm with the resistance

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                    • #55
                      Originally posted by DMZ View Post
                      The value is in how you present it. What Mark F is doing is aligning different KPIs in a way that you can see how they correlate and also showing specific trends within them. Data is only easy to understand because someone makes it so. It was easy to tell long before NPHET acknowledged this to be the case that hospitalisations would be a problem. It was easy to tell long before NPHET acknowledged this to be the case that primary schools were a problem.
                      Primary schools are not a problem.
                      "All the finesse of a badger." (cdiv)

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                      • #56
                        Hahaha, funny
                        I'm with the resistance

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                        • #57
                          Depends on your definition of a problem, or safety, I guess.

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                          • #58
                            Originally posted by DMZ View Post
                            Hahaha, funny
                            So, NPHET have been really clear that children that age are, on average, at lower risk in school than out of school. Schools being open are not the reason cases are high in that age cohort and they firmly believe that it's indoor activity other than school that is driving transmission.

                            This mirrors evidence from other countries.
                            "All the finesse of a badger." (cdiv)

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                            • #59
                              Originally posted by SJ View Post
                              ... they firmly believe that it's indoor activity other than school that is driving transmission.

                              It's the ball-pits, isn't it?

                              Bad enough when they were just filled with wee.

                              Soft play has so much to answer for.

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                              • #60
                                Tony H keeps talking about playdates. It makes me a little uncomfortable TBH.
                                "All the finesse of a badger." (cdiv)

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