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Covid-19 Pandemic - The New Hope

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  • Originally posted by richardsheil View Post



    We are good at that regulated industry stuff so it must be something in our psyche.
    Well some of it anyway.

    Good to be mostly hearing good news for a change. Really good. About time this thread lived up to its title.
    sigpichttps://mingshitters.wordpress.com/

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        • Had a delightful trip to the Nordschleife last week, showed covid test boarding the ferry each way and that was it.
          Got pulled in for a chat by the French Gendarmes but they were more interested in the cars.
          Everything else was just like back in over priced Ireland - wear masks in shops and stuff but relaxed for everything else.
          Had to show vaccination or negative test for the GT3 race at the GP circuit and staggered seating.


          Dare I say, it all felt very normal.

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            • Trend is heading down again,great to see.

              Are there any figures showing hospital admissions pre vaccines compared to now?
              Looks like the vaccines are keeping the majority of positive cases out of hospital.

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              • Originally posted by Titan View Post
                Trend is heading down again,great to see.

                Are there any figures showing hospital admissions pre vaccines compared to now?
                Looks like the vaccines are keeping the majority of positive cases out of hospital.
                At a high level there still looks to be a strong and largely unchanged relationship of hospital admission rate to case levels though.

                Last edited by Mark F; 13-09-2021, 04:43 PM.

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                • Yep that's my cursory observation too. If we don't get on top of infections then hospitals will be busy.
                  I'm with the resistance

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                  • As I said beore I think thats deceptive for a number of reasons. First, the January spike was false because of the computer issues. There was a big dump of cases in the first week of january which were more properly spread over a couple of weeks. This creates the impression from a cursory glance at a chart that the relationship is unchanged when in reality it has changed dramatically. Secondly, as more and more people get vaccinated and the virus becomes more endemic, the number of people who test positive when their admission is for something other than covid will rise over time. But this is not reflective of pressure caused by covid.

                    Surely what matters now is the amount of time those patients are spending in hospital, which must be falling since the total numbers in hospital have not really risen to the levels that should be implied by the long and sustained high levels of cases.

                    For example, if they follow through with the suggestion to stop testing asymptomatic/vaccinated people, its quite conceivable that as case numbers fall, that simple graph could start to look a lot worse, even though in reality conditions are improving.

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                    • I’m sure there is a reduction (because NPHET and others say so) but it’s not that great looking at the cases vs inpatients graph. The inpatients graph is tracking the cases pretty truthfully. It’s not like 100% of the population has Covid-19, it’s more like 0.5-1% so I can’t really see how there could be massive corruption in those hospitalisation numbers tbh.

                      But we shall see. It’ll be fairly obvious in the next month or so.
                      I'm with the resistance

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                      • I'm not suggesting corruption or any kind of manipulation in the hospitalisation numbers. But its a fact that in January there was a huge dump in cases in the first week or two which was catchup because of the computer error. So a casual glance at that graph might say, at the peak we had 8000 cases a day, and 2000 in hospital (25%), now we have say 1500 a day and 300 in hospital (20%) , and come to the conclusion that the vaccines havent worked as well as we might have expected. But if in reality the Xmas period was running a sustained 3-4k cases a day that looks dramatically different.

                        Thats before you get into the profile of the patients, in particular the ages, reasons for admittance, etc etc

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                        • While i agree that the case data reporting was not accurate in early Jan the testing data wasn't impacted, and even including a 7 day average to take out spikes it still shows the linkage is not fully broken at this current time. I don't think anyone could say the vaccines are ineffective though you just need to look at the severity of the Jan and current waves for such support. what is not immediately evident from this data though is the severity of illness and duration of stay in Hospital, all of which have been reduced by the vaccines.
                          The linkage is i think important as it could be a major factor when transmission immunity wanes and we are relying solely on the vaccine protection against hospitalisation/severe illness and Deaths. To me at the moment we are getting more impact from the 6- 9 months or so of the vaccine transmission immunity life span.

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                          • Your other graph that compares cases with number of inpatients does implicitly take into account time spent in hospital. There is a much longer lag between cases and inpatients earlier in the year which maybe shows that people are getting out quicker now but the two lines are still tracking each other reasonably faithfully which I'm not sure I would expect to see if it's so easy to treat patients. But there could also be process inefficiencies in hospitals that is making it hard to clear patients irrespective of the clinical situation. I think in summary, best to not have inpatients in the first place...
                            I'm with the resistance

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                            • Today's inpatient update

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