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Covid-19 Pandemic - The New Hope

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  • Incidentally lads, a couple of weeks ago the CSO released the annual death statistics and it makes for interesting reading.

    2011 28,456
    2012 29,186 (+730)
    2013 29,504 (+318)
    2014 29,252 (-252)
    2015 30,127 (+875)
    2016 30,667 (+540)
    2017 30,418 (-249)
    2018 31,140 (+722)
    2019 31,134 (-6)
    2020 31,765 (+631)

    It’s interesting because it looks like a gradually increasing data series with no real outliers outside statistical significance, I assume driven by overall population trends. 2020 doesn’t even make the top 3 annual increases which is surprising since we officially had 2,237 deaths from Covid. I don’t remember everyone losing their collective sh1t in 2015 for example.

    This is not a Covid denial post, and I’m well aware that if we had let it run riot we could have had a different outcome and many more deaths. But it does look that a huge number of the deaths actually classified as Covid deaths were people who were sadly dying of other conditions (CSO themselves said this in a report at end September), and in this context we need to critically look at the 2200 deaths by September projection……its an even more Armageddon like number than it initially seems when you compare it to the numbers that have likely dies exclusively from Covid to date. It’s probably somewhere of the order of a doubling of our actual death toll. To me the CMO needs to come out and explain exactly where this is coming from.

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    • Originally posted by Bunk View Post
      To me the CMO needs to come out and explain exactly where this is coming from.
      I agree that an explanation would be good. I'm pretty sure one will happen this week.
      in terms of where it's coming from, you can access a lot of the technical papers here:
      https://www.gov.ie/en/publication/dc...chnical-notes/
      They haven't been updated for June - the slides from June 17th for example paint a much more positive picture; but Cillian DeGascun was saying yesterday that we went from 20% delta to 55% delta in a week, which may explain some of the sudden shift in tone.
      "All the finesse of a badger." (cdiv)

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      • Miriam Lord.
        https://www.irishtimes.com/news/poli...imax-1.4607289

        F*cking clown show.
        "All the finesse of a badger." (cdiv)

        Comment


        • There just appears to be this totally dysfunctional relationship between NPHET and the Government and added to that their projections really need a lot more scrutiny given that they assert more deaths, hospitalisations and cases between now and September than over the entire duration of the Pandemic to date. And that considering how many people have already been vaccinated either fully or partially. If those projections were real the entire continent of Europe would be shutting down right now.

          Instead what we have is a proposal that the only thing that can stop this approaching Delta wave due to cause 8k cases over 3 months and 22 deaths a day - which stands more risk of being imported from people visiting and flying through Belfast - is that there is no indoor dining or at least not by unvaccinated people. Now it seems that the next hurdle is somehow implementing a vaccine certificate to let you into a restaurant as if that couldn't have been considered at any point oh I don't know during maybe the last 6 months as a logical outworking of the vaccination program, and the legal aspects and implementation is to be worked out in 2 weeks or something when even my one eyed cat is able to tell me that they will come back in a fortnight to say hey this is absolutely unworkable, legally challenging too and making civil liberties conditional on a medical intervention has massive political and philosophical implications that you bog dwelling cretins don't understand anyway so we're not going to explain them to you.

          This is complete and utter lunacy.

          What happens then? Open up anyway and hope everyone forgets about this lil blip? Stay closed until 'herd immunity'? Belatedly allow antigen testing? Or just let NPHET sound a warning for the resumption of foreign travel in July, the August Bank Holiday, the schools reopening, the evenings closing in, Hallow'een, winter, Christmas and roll this nightmare on and on

          This now is an irrational mania. The threat of Covid was very real and initial fears were that it would kill 80,000 people in Ireland. It was right to take certain precautions but now that the vaccine program is advanced and this massive thread has passed there has to be a balance of risk. Instead we have unelected bureaucrats stubbornly digging in and every few months rolling out an unaudited, wildly inaccurate model (as in March '21) demanding more curtailments to our lives and livelihoods.

          I'd add 2c that might echo elsewhere: I work in the FDI sector, 80%+ of my colleagues in Ireland are not Irish and due to language requirements in the roles, many of the Irish folks like me are dual nationals or have a tie to another country. There is a sense in this cohort of feeling totally overlooked by the State, largely restricted from travel in and out of the country when being here was largely intertwined with connectivity back to their own country. Holidaying here has little attraction for them, most don't have their own cars. And many have said well without that and without vibrant hospitality and cultural sectors there isn't a whole lot to Ireland for us. Many have quietly hinted at heading home for good when travel resumes. So this isn't just about hospitality, it is intertwined into other areas including Ireland Inc. Part of our appeal globally is interconnected with people visiting here or spending a few years working here. Remove all that, remove one of the jewels in the crown of this country - the tourism sector -, make it harder to do business in, cause a flight of skilled knowledge workers and the mess that will be left post-Covid will compound and compound. I hate to state the obvious but you need an economy to run a public health system too.
          Last edited by Flet; 30-06-2021, 01:35 PM.
          1998 Porsche 911 3.4 Carrera 2 (996)
          2000 Mazda MX-5 1.8 Jasper Conran #68/400
          2003 BMW 325i E46 Sport Touring


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          • I hear you Flet. In fairness to NPHET, the economy isn’t their problem. It is, however, the government’s. Not that you could tell.


            Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
            sigpichttps://mingshitters.wordpress.com/

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            • I've deliberately tried to say out of this thread as it just pisses me off too much. 2 seasons of my business, my hard grafted, no support from the state, successful and growing up to around February 2020 business has been flushed down the toilet. Don't start me on that.

              Now, I'm not suggesting that some of the restrictions, particularly in the early days, weren't warranted. I'm not an ejiit.

              But at this stage, after hearing about breaking the link between infection and hospitalisation, why are we going through all this?
              Don't we have a system about to be introduced to verify someone's vaccination status (the EU vaccine passport thing)? Isn't that supposed to be here by 19th July? Why do we have to invent another system? Can we not just use that for domestic purposes too?

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              • Overall Lunacy statement I agree with. Its as if the Government are trying to hard to please some and in doing so are failing others. If only they could demonstrate how they are operating halfway between Economy and NPHET. Their may be more of a general belief in them then.

                If they opened up fully as per the current toll of the loudest bells, can you imaging the next loudest bells of 'The Government has failed us at basic health care' when the Delta Variant runs riot. Then the comparison crew will spout New Zealand all over again.



                Originally posted by Flet View Post
                Many have quietly hinted at heading home for good when travel resumes.
                A reasonable reason to travel so that doesn't make sense. Unless you factor in the PUP as the enticement to stay?




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                • Haven't read all the posts today so apologies if this cuts across.

                  Was chatting with a younger person in Berlin and this is how it on the ground as of an hour ago. There are about six of them and none vaccinated but have clear PCR test results.

                  Seems very simple, efficient and no reason why its not possible everywhere.
                  _________________
                  Older but no wiser.

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                  • I don't really know if what they're doing this week makes sense and I've stopped getting worked up about it, but there does seem to be a fair bit of frustration. I'm not unsympathetic. Maybe these things mean more to others than me, but I think the only way you can stay sane is not worry about what you can't do, and just focus on what you can do.

                    You can go for a decent spin these days for example, couldn't do that a while ago.

                    Lad in work just bought himself an AE86, he reckoned he'd have never saved for it without Covid, and would never afford one later.

                    Not trying to be all forced positivity here, but it's easy to drive yourself nuts focusing on will they/won't they ease a restriction this week.

                    https://www.instagram.com/diecast_1_64/

                    Comment


                    • Was dropping my wife to vaccination (she's a late adopter, not anti vax, just not keen) and I heard Mary Lou on the radio. Positioning herself as the champion of young people in the face of government discrimination. They can serve but can't eat have a drink where they serve. "Taioseach, this just won't do".

                      How on Earth did they manage to plant themselves so obviously in front of multiple own goals for the Shinners? Who must be thanking their absolute lucky stars they didn't have to manage NPHET. Mind you......
                      sigpichttps://mingshitters.wordpress.com/

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                      • Just in case anyone hasn't noticed, Lisbon has introduced some pretty significant lockdown measures recently because of Delta, and some of the UK SAGE committee are now talking about the need to reverse their reopening; so I'm not sure that the notion that we're some bizarre outlier is going to hold for much longer.
                        "All the finesse of a badger." (cdiv)

                        Comment


                        • Originally posted by Traco View Post
                          Haven't read all the posts today so apologies if this cuts across.

                          Was chatting with a younger person in Berlin and this is how it on the ground as of an hour ago. There are about six of them and none vaccinated but have clear PCR test results.

                          Seems very simple, efficient and no reason why its not possible everywhere.
                          I'm aware of this stuff and tbh I think it's a monumental pain in the balls if I'm honest. In places like Germany they obviously embrace any form of form filling and general crapology with much enthusiasm. At some stage in the near future I'm heading south, mostly avoiding Germany for this reason but the likes of Denmark and Holland are big into this too. I'm vaccinated so it's ok but this whole "show your papers" (and in Germany they study said papers for like two minutes) is not really that cool. I guess it's better than sitting on the pavement drinking take-away beer but there is a certain level of dystopia about this whole thing too. I am incidentally in a country that has the same rules for everyone like Ireland with no papers required, albeit a bit more relaxed when it comes to the rules, and if it works then it's the better approach. And yes I can go for indoor drinks if I wanted to but I have seen no reason to in the middle of the summer and there is a clear understanding among everyone that being outside is way safer from an infection spread point of view.

                          Comment


                          • Originally posted by Ming View Post
                            Was dropping my wife to vaccination (she's a late adopter, not anti vax, just not keen) and I heard Mary Lou on the radio. Positioning herself as the champion of young people in the face of government discrimination. They can serve but can't eat have a drink where they serve. "Taioseach, this just won't do".

                            How on Earth did they manage to plant themselves so obviously in front of multiple own goals for the Shinners? Who must be thanking their absolute lucky stars they didn't have to manage NPHET. Mind you......
                            I heard that also and the exact same thought crossed my mind.
                            _________________
                            Older but no wiser.

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                            • It was obvious that SF would latch onto this. They have been waiting for some public dissent to tap into and here it is.

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                              • ROI Today

                                452 new positive cases
                                44 Hospital inpatients
                                14 ICU patients



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