Covid-19 Pandemic - The New Hope

[Ming]

I'm not sure either. But some of the NPHET advice seems to be based on not overwhelming the system. And if there was a realistic prospect of this (as opposed to the total ambush that the Delta variant sprang on us, and after that the total ambush the Epsilon Pro Max 12 S+ variant will probably spring on us) perhaps it would have made sense to use some of the last 18 months increasing capacity. You have all the facts at your fingertips I do not. But I'm not convinced that there has been an adequate explanation of why the apocalypse will be triggered here as opposed to the rest of the world by indoor dining. I'm not convinced by any recent explanations actually. And they all look like rabbits in headlights who didn't think a train was coming.

And its not just yay lets have pints = sending more people to hospital as you well know but thanks for paraphrasing and trivialising my point nevertheless.

Whatever you want to say SJ, this is a total clustershambles in terms of Government/NPHET preparedness, coordination and messaging. It's actually a huge shame that the very well justified credit for the vaccine rollout which has been phenomenal and the remaining respect NPHET has will be partially blown by this numptyism.

[SJ]

Whatever you want to say SJ, this is a total clustershambles in terms of Government/NPHET preparedness, coordination and messaging. It's actually a huge shame that the very well justified credit for the vaccine rollout which has been phenomenal and the remaining respect NPHET has will be partially blown by this numptyism.

I agree

Also, for what it's worth, I'm not unhappy about the modelling and I'm pretty sure the data and assumptions are available somewhere - if not they'll do a press conference shortly. I am extremely unhappy about how it's been handled.
Bunk says:
Even if it did make sense, why are those plans not ready right now? Like this situation hasn’t been talked about for well over a year of this thing?

I can't stress how much I agree with this. It's been crystal clear that vaccine apartheid was not an option, until yesterday.

[Jeremy Taxman]

I love that they have thrown Eamon ryan under the bus again. He is such a hapless dumbass.
I don't care what happens now, there is zero chance I am going indoors to a pub or restaurant for the next few weeks. given the transmissability of the delta variant. The numbers coming out of the UK are shocking and of course, we have done nothing about travel from there.
The govt made a balls of it at christmas, they're trying not to do the same again in the face of a rapidly changing landscape and they're useless. We know this. Why is everyone surprised by their incompetence?

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[VeeAte]

There appears to be a lot more hand-wringing about a two tier society in relation to indoor dining than a two-tier society where some could work from home and some could not.

[SJ]

There appears to be a lot more hand-wringing about a two tier society in relation to indoor dining than a two-tier society where some could work from home and some could not.

There are a couple of differences- we know that pub and restaurant socializing is a major driver of cases. We know that bus driving or supermarket work are not. If there are outbreaks in workplaces we close them and send people home. Much harder to do that with pubs where the population changes daily if not hourly.

No non healthcare occupation has an increased risk of death from covid.

[VeeAte]

No non healthcare occupation has an increased risk of death from covid.

Waiter/waitress, surely ?

[miller]

arguing over :D:D:D:Ding pubs and alcohol again. Its as bad as Religion and arguing over whose imaginary friend is better.

Its a sorry state when the country focuses that much on Alcohol. Now you can see why other countries who dont have the same obsession with Alcohol can trust its population not to go bananas and so open up.

[Ming]

I’d like to defend the worldwide community of hapless dumbasses against that unwarranted and offensive comparison with Eamon Ryan.

The numbers on Delta are in fact kind of scary and it’s obvious that that it’s going to be down to vaccination everywhere to get it out of the system. We have to accept that pubs and restaurants are gone now for the next couple of weeks (easy for me to say of course as my livelihood doesn’t depend on one) and hope we can get the jab in enough people to ensure schools and colleges open and stay open. And of course we have more problems than the mainland EU member states because of our NI border and the CTA and really cutting off the UK doesn’t work for us.

Please please please can someone tell the government to talk to those all powerful unelected independent NPHET supremos in private rather than being continuously ambushed in the media before the next substantive communication? Otherwise they might as well hand it over to Sinn Fein.


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[Bunk]

Miller constantly reducing the argument to that level does no one any favours. It’s not just about alcohol. It’s about the lives and livelihoods of people that run businesses and the hundreds of thousands of people employed by them. It’s about, as I said a few pages back, the ridiculous situation where I cant go into McDonalds with the kids while British tourists come over here on the lash. Its all the amenities that have their indoor dining facilities, many of which don’t even serve alcohol, closed and the knock on effect that has on the whole experience. It’s not about getting down to Coppers asap to get sh1tfaced. Even if it were, that doesn’t excuse the shambolic way this thing was managed.

[SJ]

Waiter/waitress, surely ?

No. I've looked at this in detail. We don't have great occupation data on deaths from the first wave, but after that it got better - that's why the vaccine prioritization was changed to purely age-based. It's one of the reasons we've done a lot better than - eg - Italy, where they allowed all sorts of interest groups priority access to vaccination (teachers, lawyers, etc).

There's truth in what Miller says as well as Bunk and Ming (I have to say lads, your criticism is mostly justified). We know from December that many people will push the limits of what is allowed, and despite clear messaging from Tony H et al that it was a 'menu' of activities that people should choose from, the number of close contacts per person exploded, with really bad results. I think it's safer to open McD's for bunk than it is to open Copper's; but practically speaking it's very challenging to walk that line.

I think it's probably worth remembering that the big problem is the deadly virus; and while communication and policy could be better; we're mostly angry because life has been ruined by the virus.

[miller]

Miller constantly reducing the argument to that level does no one any favours. It’s not just about alcohol. It’s about the lives and livelihoods of people that run businesses and the hundreds of thousands of people employed by them. It’s about, as I said a few pages back, the ridiculous situation where I cant go into McDonalds with the kids while British tourists come over here on the lash. Its all the amenities that have their indoor dining facilities, many of which don’t even serve alcohol, closed and the knock on effect that has on the whole experience. It’s not about getting down to Coppers asap to get sh1tfaced. Even if it were, that doesn’t excuse the shambolic way this thing was managed.

Contently reducing the argument down to the common denominator of Alcohol is what it is and cant be twisted, but doesn't the whole theory of Alcohol dependent country spark the need for a massive alcohol industry in the first place that fuels these livelihoods in the first place.

British tourists cant come here on the lash without quarantining first, then they can join you in an outdoor drinking session if that's the desire.

Just open up indoor dining full stop just without the Alcohol licence to fuel the livelihoods of that industry. People wouldn't be rushing as much as they cant get a bleeding pint. December last year proves what will happen if given a free ticket.

Or as the Govt has dangled a carrot, get your vaccine and support the nations drive to full immunity then these models produced by NPHET wont have any foundations.

[Bunk]

SJ I wonder could you help with something. One issue that we faced a year ago was the realisation that while we perceive certain establishments to be completely different, eg Coppers v the Bald Barista v your local Michelin Star Restaurant v the meerkat restaurant at the zoo, that in law they all operated under the same licenses and therefore in order to keep coppers closed and not discriminate, the legislation was framed in such a way that we had to shut everything, even where risk in certain areas was minuscule. Does the same pertain today, and if it still does, why has nothing been done in the year that has elapsed in order that we can take a more tailored, risk/reward approach instead of having to use a sledgehammer?

[JohnRA]

I also find myself agreeing with Bunk, Ming, Miller and SJ.

While there is the frustration of what appears to be constant goal post moving, which could be argued shouldn't be happening this late in the game, unfortunately player 3 has entered the game.

Before Covid, people were shitty with hygiene when it comes to Hospitality/F&B settings.

Now we've a few new factors. Delta being one, complacency another, and shitty people being shitty when it comes to washing their hands when they've alcohol on board. It doesn't even take a rake of pints to do it. One or two pints at lunch also seems to induce an aversion to soap, water, face masks and social distancing.

I saw it last time when indoor dining resumed, and again this time with outdoor dining. Far too many people going in to use toilets, and not putting their mask on and and then either not washing their hands or doing a quick splash and wipe and then fixing their eyebrows and checking they've nothing stuck in their teeth in the mirror.

So while I would have had the same view that it appeared NPHET have absolute contempt for Hospitality/F&B/pubs/anything to do with alcohol, I also find myself (reluctantly) being able to see their reasoning.

[Bunk]

Contently reducing the argument down to the common denominator of Alcohol is what it is and cant be twisted, but doesn't the whole theory of Alcohol dependent country spark the need for a massive alcohol industry in the first place that fuels these livelihoods in the first place.

British tourists cant come here on the lash without quarantining first, then they can join you in an outdoor drinking session if that's the desire.

Just open up indoor dining full stop just without the Alcohol licence to fuel the livelihoods of that industry. People wouldn't be rushing as much as they cant get a bleeding pint. December last year proves what will happen if given a free ticket.

Or as the Govt has dangled a carrot, get your vaccine and support the nations drive to full immunity then these models produced by NPHET wont have any foundations.

Firstly, they are coming on the lash and are either ignoring the quarantine rules or coming through the exemption zone that is NI.

Secondly, ho w does December prove anything? The busiest social time of the year, in the middle of winter, the core of the normal hospital overload time for respiratory diseases, compared with now, middle of summer with now (according to Paul Reid this morning), 44% of the population fully vacccinated and 67% with at least 1 dose, but more importantly 99% of the groups representing the bulk of all deaths? Also, we are continuing to vaccinate at an impressive rate?

[SJ]

SJ I wonder could you help with something. One issue that we faced a year ago was the realisation that while we perceive certain establishments to be completely different, eg Coppers v the Bald Barista v your local Michelin Star Restaurant v the meerkat restaurant at the zoo, that in law they all operated under the same licenses and therefore in order to keep coppers closed and not discriminate, the legislation was framed in such a way that we had to shut everything, even where risk in certain areas was minuscule. Does the same pertain today, and if it still does, why has nothing been done in the year that has elapsed in order that we can take a more tailored, risk/reward approach instead of having to use a sledgehammer?

The civil service answer to this is that NPHET gives advice and it's up to the Departments responsible for the various sectors to interpret and implement that advice - which they do by providing text for various emergency regulations etc as needed., so I don't know what any other Departments are doing.

The more helpful answer - albeit just my personal opinion -is that it is very difficult indeed to slice businesses and apply different rules, and of course people will try everything possible to game the system, and also they'll ridicule attempts to do so in a way that isn't great for public confidence (the 'substantial meal' requirement was an attempt to allow restaurants but not crowded bars... sensible really but much maligned).
I think we could certainly introduce regulations about the distance between tables, density of seating, ventilation, CO2 monitoring, and whatnot; but I think the practical reality is that it's not worth it - a hugely burdensome regulation and compliance system for a small amount of opening that is probably not viable for most businesses that obviously rely on density and turnover to make any money.

UK travellers are by and large not ignoring the home quarantining requirements, from the data we have. follow-up on that has been tightened up a fair bit too.