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Covid-19 Pandemic - The New Hope

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  • Originally posted by Ming View Post

    Fair enough. What's wrong with saying we will do something similar? As opposed to "there will be an apocalypse if we allow indoors dining" but NPHET is not opposed in a fundamentalist way to allowing vaccinated people to dine indoors (subtext - on an apartheid basis).
    I may be wrong but is that not what's being said?

    Antigen testing is good for some things - there have been trials here and more are planned. However the CDC recently recommended that people throw those UK kits in the bin, so we're not exactly alone in our caution.
    "All the finesse of a badger." (cdiv)

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    • “If we summer this wan out,
      we can have another awful winter.”

      - Seamus NHeaneyPET
      1998 Porsche 911 3.4 Carrera 2 (996)
      2000 Mazda MX-5 1.8 Jasper Conran #68/400
      2003 BMW 325i E46 Sport Touring


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      • It’s not often I find myself agreeing with Alan Kelly but his terms, ludicrous bananas and insane I find hard to quarrel with. Even more amazing, Regina Doherty, brought in by Newstalk there, presumably to defend the government instead said “I find myself in the unenviable position of having to agree with practically everything Deputy Kelly just said”.

        The fact they think it’s acceptable, 16 months into this, to say they will have a plan in a few weeks time (as if this scenario wasn’t being talked about this time last year and this is some new unforeseen crisi) shows the utter contempt with which they have treated the hospitality industry and also the sheer laziness and incompetence and complacency with which they treat their office. It’s indefensible.

        as for NPHET I stand by my earlier post; there needs to be a circuit breaker, some sort of oversight of this that they can’t just pluck magical figures from a hat and throw them out there. I have read the letter and even the “central” scenarios are fantastical in the extreme and bear no relationship to the course of this pandemic to date. not in light of the progress in vaccinations.

        The made thing is that by acceding to their request they will never be found out. When it doesn’t come to pass they can just point to the government postponement.

        So we continue in this mad situation where unvaccinated British tourists can come over here and go on the lash, but my kids can’t go into a coffee shop. It’s bonkers. Totally and utterly bonkers.

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        • Letter is available here
          https://www.gov.ie/en/collection/ba4...r-health/#2021

          "All the finesse of a badger." (cdiv)

          Comment


          • Globally speaking, 3 billion vaccine doses have now been administered.

            – The first half a billion took 114 days.
            – The last half a billion were administered in the last 13 days.
            "All the finesse of a badger." (cdiv)

            Comment


            • Originally posted by SJ View Post
              I read the letter. It is cogently argued at least. It still doesn't really explain why we are in such a state versus the rest of Europe. If the other European countries had modeled this out the same way they would be shutting up dining fairly sharpish. Also, the worst case scenario seems to mean that anyone who can will get the virus - 700,000 cases. Really? That would be the equivalent of 48 million cases or so in the US. Or 11.5m in the UK.
              sigpichttps://mingshitters.wordpress.com/

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              • In my opinion yes, everyone will get the virus if there are no restrictions while there are still enough people vulnerable to it. That's certainly what Fauci says. I think the point of those scenarios is not that "this is realistically going to happen" - it's rather "this is what would happen if you opened up and didn't reverse course at any point". Obviously we've seen the reality that we have to introduce more restrictions when R grows over about 1.2.

                In terms of the projections, I think if you take the UK case numbers now, divide by 12 or so for population, we'd be over 2,000 a day. make another adjustment because we're a few weeks behind on vaccination, you'd have to admit it's not a good number. The Hospitalisation link won't be broken for another month or so till over 50s are good and vaccinated. I can't say I see indoor dining a month earlier as being worth it.

                There are a quarter of a million kids off school in the UK isolating, also. Now, that's obviously not as bad as full ICUs, but to be honest I think that's terrible and they opened too soon. Granted I don't own or visit pubs.

                I don't want to be too defensive either though - honestly it's shocking to be suggesting vaccine passporting today for going to pubs or whatever.
                Last edited by SJ; 29-06-2021, 10:06 PM.
                "All the finesse of a badger." (cdiv)

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                • Will it be same scenario we are in now, this evening, for every varient that will come our way in the future?

                  Will it be a case of rinse and repeat the same level of incompetence displayed over the last 48 hours leaving many people in the hospitality and other industry rightly distraught and us all living in a two tier state???

                  Utterly speechless and disgusted if this is the sum of 18 months planning.

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                  • Honestly folks I love a Friday pint as much as the next man my local is 397 meters downhill from work I appreciate how hard it must be for owner/operators but if keeping indoor drinking and dining on hold means we can at least continue as is with gyms and everything else that opened up earlier this month then it must be the way to go

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                    • Well at least the great pandemic lockdown bicycle lane crusade has gone well. Maybe the most successful initiative ever.

                      Planning for the incredibly surprising next variant / wave, or getting some more ICU capacity, perhaps hasn’t gone quite so well.

                      Measured next to the bicycle lane KPI’s anyway.


                      Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
                      sigpichttps://mingshitters.wordpress.com/

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                      • Think this sums it up nicely

                        https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UJn5JAdfyqA

                        A lot more explanation and reasons for their decisions needed.

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                        • I’ll happily sit outside the pub for now, but what’s wrecking my head is not getting back to the office, going the whole day without speaking to anyone in person is headwrecking

                          Comment


                          • Originally posted by SJ View Post
                            Globally speaking, 3 billion vaccine doses have now been administered.

                            – The first half a billion took 114 days.
                            – The last half a billion were administered in the last 13 days.
                            They are amazing figures to be fair, the mid boggles!

                            Comment


                            • Originally posted by Ming View Post

                              Planning for the incredibly surprising next variant / wave, or getting some more ICU capacity, perhaps hasn’t gone quite so well.
                              What's the argument here? We should have more ICU capacity so we can open the restaurants and pubs a bit earlier? not sure that's worth sending thousands of people to hospital for, tbh.
                              "All the finesse of a badger." (cdiv)

                              Comment


                              • SJ I appreciate you are “inside the tent” and it has to be hard to be working away and have loads of colleagues working their asses off and therefore find it hard to criticise but come on……..the way this has been managed is just appalling. It’s indefensible.

                                On so many levels its just no way to run a country.

                                Firstly, to leave yourself at the mercy of an unelected healthcare administrator in Maynooth with a spreadsheet, and to have no idea of the numbers he is going to produce but having flagged that you wont go against it whatever it is.

                                Secondly, to spend the whole weekend saying you cant have vaccine apartheid in this country, only to reverse it a few days later because of same.

                                If quotes attributed to MM are correct (and I’m seeing no denial), he went to TH and asked what the story would be if we couldn’t do vaccine apartheid and was told no hopositality for the foreseeable future. So on that basis they completely change their policy and say they will go ahead with something that on Sunday Eamon Ryan said would be unfair, discriminatory, cause more problems than it solves and makes no sense?

                                Even if it did make sense, why are those plans not ready right now? Like this situation hasn’t been talked about for well over a year of this thing?

                                Another thing, an awful lot of people seem flabbergasted by the numbers but they claim they have no ability to check them and we cant have any independent oversight of it? So even though we have put 4m vaccines in arms, we are somehow going to triple the prevaccine case numbers in the course of 3 months? Even when vaccination continues apace? And the models remain sealed, for no ones eyes other than Philip Nolan?

                                And its not just about “another couple of weeks without pints to save x amount of lives”. This is a wholesale change in policy which essentially has been forced on the government by an unelected agency that they feel powerless to go against. It’s an unspecified period of time, by which they have promised to come up with a plan which will no doubt take weeks to implement. By which time, if we had just done nothing we would have caught up in vaccinations anyway, making having to deal with the political fallout of this an own goal of spectacular proportions, As I said, this is no way to run a country.

                                And for the record I say this as someone who is fully vaccinated and who can avail of my apartheid pints served to me by unvaccinated minimum wage youngsters and has no stake in the hospitality industry.

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