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Covid-19 Pandemic - The New Hope

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  • County and Age group latest data up to last Friday

    Last edited by Mark F; 28-06-2021, 01:32 PM.


    • George Lee going to have a field day today!


      • NI Today

        211 new positive cases
        16 Hospital inpatients
        2 ICU patients


        • What sort of advanced notice do you get for the second shot? Mrs due her second shot next Monday and no word yet. Just wondering do you get much notice or when do you need to call them?


          • I was 4 weeks to the day yesterday and still no tect on my second one. First one in the Helix in Dublin but it does seem to be running a few days behind.

            Had to turn the radio off several times today. Seemed like each time I turned it on someone from some numbers think tank has us at 1,000 cases per day. Then even with an extended 2/3 weeks before opening indoor dining they would only expect a 10% reduction in cases??
            Older but no wiser.


            • Originally posted by jimgti View Post
              What sort of advanced notice do you get for the second shot? Mrs due her second shot next Monday and no word yet. Just wondering do you get much notice or when do you need to call them?
              Down in Kerry where things are moving faster but I got text for 2nd dose on 9th June for a 13 th June appointment


              • It's hard to know what to make of this.


                Nphet predict thousands of cases in August if the Delta variant takes off.
                Is this just extreme caution on their part, I think if they see even the tiniest hint of cases taking off again, they
                want to shut the place down and not have a repeat of what happened in December/January.
                But I would have thought the vaccine rollout would have a much bigger influence now with what you would hope
                are far less hospitalisations and people getting very sick.

                I know cases are rising in places like the UK again, but have they gotten so much worse due to this variant?

                The whole thing looks like a never ending nightmare, especially for business in hospitality.


                • Latest case County info and age group trend


                  • So we are outliers in terms of using AZ to vaccinate the young and also in terms of restrictions on inside dining.

                    If NPHET is correct, an apocalypse is coming everywhere else on account of inside dining unless we are especially vulnerable here? Does this go back to numbers of ICU beds again? Does anyone know?

                    Why are we relying on, or as the case may be, slavishly following, this advice without independent verification?


                    • Hospital inpatient trend - nothing alarming in the data, new admissions remain low

                      Last edited by Mark F; 29-06-2021, 12:10 PM. Reason: addition of ICU trend


                      • I don't get it, I joined a gym and went today for the first time, didn't stay long, total joke - no distancing between machines, way too many people in the place for the size and layout of the unit, folks generally wandering around like it's 2019.
                        But then I get into the car and hear on the news that indoor dining is going to be pushed back etc.


                        • Well, if the newspapers of repute can be believed and the advice suggests that

                          - we are going to see 700,000 cases in the next 3 months (270k entire pandemic so far)
                          - 2,000 deaths (4900 so far)
                          - 1600 people in ICU (peak was c 250 in January)
                          - health system overrun

                          NPHET needs an immediate circuit breaker and someone to come in and do an independent review of these numbers. I don’t care if there are caveats in there missing from the media reports, they have grasped the media spotlight with gusto in the last year, and need to understand that such numbers would always be seized upon and put the government in an impossible position.

                          It is clearly nonsense and should not have seen the light of day. ~The assumption must be that every single non or not fully vaccinated person in the country catches the thing at the exact same time and all have the worst possible reaction to it. Complete horsesh1t, thats the mildest thing I can say about it, I’m only reserving my real thoughts for confirmation that this is indeed what they said.


                          • Nobody's seen the advice yet apart from Government, as far as I know. I've seen no data or modelling, but I confess I'm a little surprised at the reports coming out as the mood was much more positive last week.

                            I'm not sure why indoor dining is suddenly the most important thing in the world for everyone. I'm aware there are livelihoods involved and don't mean to minimise that, but really a couple of weeks isn't going to change the economic future of the country.

                            Anyway, without the data and detail, I can't speculate on why a delay would be recommended. All along it's been about not overwhelming the system (though as I've been saying all along, the relative number of ICU beds is totally irrelevant in an exponential growth situation) - it would indeed be a bit much if that has changed now.

                            I also *really* don't like segregating the population. Not sure who's going to be let in to serve the indoor diners if it's not younger people. "you can come in to serve us but not to dine with us" just doesn't wash at all.

                            "All the finesse of a badger." (cdiv)


                            • While I appreciate the great strides and fantastic work done in vaccinations, I have always said that NPHET broadcasting soundbites to the media has blindsided the government in a thoroughly unhelpful way. They seem to have excelled themselves at this stage with some numbers (if actually correctly reported? Are they?) which beggar belief and strain any remaining credibility.

                              I want this checked for scientific sense. Even for adding up and spreadsheet formula errors at this stage.

                              How can it be such an appalling vista here and not anywhere else? Based on indoors dining?

                              This reminds me of a film - Brazil.


                              • I think I already explained why indoors dining is not a big deal outside of the British isles. It's not cold and it doesn't rain all the time. That tends to have an impact on how people socialise. I would describe it as an irrelevant comparison tbh. NPHET in fairness needs to look at the reality in Ireland, not the perceived reality in other countries. Whether that justifies the whole thing I have no idea.

                                If you think the delta variant is very bad (I'm not a great believer in the weekly variant scare tbh) then there is plenty of concern out there. Germany in particular. Portugal is saying they're now regretting opening their borders. Northern Ireland numbers are shooting up, which is in fairness the most relevant place to look at for ideas as to what might happen if you open indoors hospitality on this island. It's not all rosy out there. But it's also not all bad with lots of vaccinations and all the other stuff.


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