United Ireland and Brexit

[Cold]

How are the unionists dealing with it? Ignoring the result, refusing to take part in an executive as junior members probably? I presume they are only interested in democracy so long as they hold the majority.

[Flet]

Stormont will end up working, it just needs the right amount of money and/or coercion to get going again.

Hard to say re Unionism. I personally was disappointed in the UUP vote. The TUV is a big (protest?) vote to the right, more Unionists than nats are voting Alliance #1 or subsequently transferring to Alliance which suggests (taking a guess here) younger Unionists would prefer a small u Unionist party that focuses more on day to day issues?

My Unionist friends and contacts say they feel their vote bloc was split and that a regroup is in order. And they blame the DUP’s
toxicity and Brexit/Protocol etc & rightly so.

[Cold]

I haven’t really had a chance to look at it in detail but seems nice that the Alliance party is doing well. That part of the world needs a less shouty less sectarian set of politics to deal with normal stuff like you say. There are big decisions ahead for Northern Ireland (and the Republic) and some sensible cool heads would be useful.

[miller]

In reality Sinn Fein need the DUP onboard in whatever capacity. If the title Sinn Fein is to gain any credibility in the UK.

They have an amazing opportunity right now in their hands.......

[-alan-]

Fwiw I reckon what'll happen up North now will be similar to here - the two centre right Unionist parties will coalesce in some form or fashion to regain a majority to keep the SF boys (and girls) out of power for a while longer. Ireland does need some viable left-leaning party to keep the other lot on their toes, and that's pretty much where SF sits nowadays.

How the Border thing will work out I can't see yet. Once you have true equality up there, one of the biggest emotional drivers for a united Ireland disappears - and then it will (imho) come down to a more calculated decision based on things like economic and monetary issues, which are largely the preserve of Westminster and the EU.

[prpr]

Fwiw I reckon what'll happen up North now will be similar to here - the two centre right Unionist parties will coalesce in some form or fashion to regain a majority to keep the SF boys (and girls) out of power for a while longer. Ireland does need some viable left-leaning party to keep the other lot on their toes, and that's pretty much where SF sits nowadays.

If no executive is formed, another election must be held in six months as far as I understand. This would probably see the PUL community return to the DUP, however unpalatable some PUL voters may find them - they will have seen the consequences of a fragmented vote (potential SF FM) and UUP/TUV will therefore lose ground.

[Flet]

I think new elections are what should happen but in practice what I think occurs is that the UK Govt passes laws to avoid same while the NI Public Service makes most of the decisions and Westminster passes the budgets. This is what I seem to recall happened from 2017-2020.

[Flet]

How the Border thing will work out I can't see yet. Once you have true equality up there, one of the biggest emotional drivers for a united Ireland disappears - and then it will (imho) come down to a more calculated decision based on things like economic and monetary issues, which are largely the preserve of Westminster and the EU.

That's more or less my view too. A fully functioning Northern Ireland including its political systems is in everyone's interests.

Having just returned from holidays and reading a bit more between the lines on what the DUP and the Tories are upset about, it appears that what the Protocol initially suggested could happen - NI to become a sort of Singapore-on-Strabane is actually in full flight with plenty of British companies moving their operations to NI. That's not good for the Tories and so we have the continuing spectacle of those who grandstanded for Brexit continuing to protest against the outworkings of it. Plus, the institutions not working will frustrate moderate nationalists more than unionists. Stormont uncertainty is always bad for unionism because it means ´weak union/dysfunctional statelet'.

All we have to do now is wait. I'd say about another quarter of a century or so with all the little rows of the oar and milestones in between.

[Cold]

Well there is the small inconvenience that Brexit has delivered absolutely SFA other than hassle and extra costs

[Aontroim]

Well there is the small inconvenience that Brexit has delivered absolutely SFA other than hassle and extra costs

I feel that Brexit has highlighted a lot of inefficiencies that come with partition. They were always there but people could diminish their importance while things were running smoothly enough.

It has also highlighted how precarious economic/social stability in Ireland can be when there is intervention from the UK (and yes, I think this applies north and south; we live in a globalised economy).

I think that in the past, partition was perceived to be the 'sensible' or 'logical' choice (although obviously, I don't subscribe to this view). I think Brexit and various DUP policies have put that view under harsh scrutiny.

Full disclosure: I would like to see a United Ireland so obviously my political aspirations/opinions can be viewed through this 'lense'. I do not feel that we will meet our potential economically until there is a United Ireland. I don't think that it will magically solve all of our problems but I do think that it will allow us to address them.

[philb]

That's more or less my view too. A fully functioning Northern Ireland including its political systems is in everyone's interests.

Having just returned from holidays and reading a bit more between the lines on what the DUP and the Tories are upset about, it appears that what the Protocol initially suggested could happen - NI to become a sort of Singapore-on-Strabane is actually in full flight with plenty of British companies moving their operations to NI. That's not good for the Tories and so we have the continuing spectacle of those who grandstanded for Brexit continuing to protest against the outworkings of it. Plus, the institutions not working will frustrate moderate nationalists more than unionists. Stormont uncertainty is always bad for unionism because it means ´weak union/dysfunctional statelet'.

All we have to do now is wait. I'd say about another quarter of a century or so with all the little rows of the oar and milestones in between.

So I can kinda understand the Tories being upset with the economic upshot for NI. The DUP though.. Are they literally getting upset on behalf of the Tories or their own notions of Union?

[Cold]

There are obviously issues with the protocol or there would be no impasse. I couldn’t for the life of me motivate myself to understand it but you’d think our copy/paste media would try to give it a stab. I’m assuming it’s related to food and agriculture primarily which is an area where the EU is very opinionated and I’m sure the rural vote is very important and mostly unionist. Basically, NI agri business can’t do business with the rest of the UK in a frictionless manner?

I think my own struggles with a United Ireland is that Northern Ireland is quite different to the south. It feels more Scottish than Irish. It’s not immediately obvious to me that there is a cultural alignment there. People will talk about money and all that but what ultimately unites people is a sense of a shared identity. On both sides of the border.

[Aontroim]

I think my own struggles with a United Ireland is that Northern Ireland is quite different to the south. It feels more Scottish than Irish. It’s not immediately obvious to me that there is a cultural alignment there. People will talk about money and all that but what ultimately unites people is a sense of a shared identity. On both sides of the border.

Subjective of course but I (respectfully) disagree with this view. It may feel more Scottish to you, but it doesn't to me (although I do accept that there is some Scottish influence).

There are obviously cultural nuances in each region. As in, 'the south' is not one homogenous unit. To take your point about Scottish influence: arguably Donegal has this influence too, is viewed as 'culturally misaligned' with other parts of the country and yet, is part of the South.

Also, nothing happens in a vacuum. With a split media/legal system/financial system/education system, there will be some differing contexts but I don't feel that this is inherently the case. I don't think this is cause and effect.

[Aontroim]

So I can kinda understand the Tories being upset with the economic upshot for NI. The DUP though.. Are they literally getting upset on behalf of the Tories or their own notions of Union?

This is certainly the general concensus amongst people of a nationalist perspective.

Anecdotally, during the run-up to the Brexit referendum many people were amused by the apparent support for Brexit amongst Unionist-voting farmers given a perceived reliance on EU subsidies.

[mikerd4]

How would a border poll be conducted and what would the outcome of it need to be to consolidate a 32 county state to be formed. Will it it require a mere 1 vote more for either side or will a certain percentage be required? What if the North votes yes but the South votes no? Or vice versa?
I have friends in Border counties that would vote yes in a heart beat but I have friends from all over Ireland that want nothing to do with NI at all. SF obviously see their large vote as confirmation of a 32 county state, but not every SF voter I know is that bothered about it and is more aligned with SFs more left leaning politics.
Even in the 6 counties the potential results could be hard to predict. Sure there are the entrenched votes on either side but there is a large body of people who are happy to just be "Northern Irish".